Sean Pendergast

Recent Third Round QB History Not Kind To Houston Texans

If recent history with third round picks is any indicator, Davis Mills' future is hazy, at best.
If recent history with third round picks is any indicator, Davis Mills' future is hazy, at best. Screen grab from YouTube
So far, in the dawning of the post-2021 NFL Draft portion of the calendar, I have seen three different mock drafts for the 2022 NFL Draft, and all three have one thing in common — each of them has the Houston Texans picking first in the draft. The consensus, at least among draft pundits, is clear. People in football think the Texans will be the worst team in football next season.

Throughout their history, the Texans have selected first in the draft three times. The first was when they entered the league as an expansion team. The other two times (2006 draft and 2014 draft) they "earned" the first pick in the draft by finishing with the worst record in the league the previous season. In both of those drafts, they opted to go with defensive ends, Mario Williams and Jadeveon Clowney, both of whom were solid enough, but ultimately not the franchise changers we'd hoped for.

If the Texans finish with the worst record in the league in 2021, there will likely be plenty of pressure to select a quarterback with the first overall pick. The problem, like in 2006 and 2014, is that there is no real generational QB prospect in the 2022 quarterback class, so there's a chance that the Texans may have to lean on this year's QB selection, Davis Mills out of Stanford.

Mills may wind up being a decent enough quarterback. Plenty of experts have said the Texans made a nice selection in Mills, some even calling it a "steal." Recent history, though, tells us that the chances of Mills, as a third round pick, becoming a viable starting quarterback are minimal, at best. Russell Wilson, with his 98-45-1 record, seven Pro Bowl berths, and a Super Bowl ring, is the recent gold standard for third round quarterbacks.

However, since Wilson was selected in the third round by Seattle in 2012, there have been eight quarterbacks selected in the third round of the draft, and when I tell you the results for those quarterbacks have been ugly, I am probably insulting ACTUAL ugly things by saying that. Here is the list of infamous third round quarterbacks taken since 2013, in reverse chronological order:

2019: Will Grier, WVU, drafted by Carolina (STATS)
CAREER RECORD: 0-2
CAREER PASSER RATING:
33.2

2018: Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State, drafted by Pittsburgh (STATS)
CAREER RECORD:
5-4
CAREER PASSER RATING:
82.7

2017: Davis Webb, Cal, drafted by NY Giants (STATS)
CAREER RECORD: DNP
CAREER PASSER RATING: N/A

2017: C.J. Beathard, Iowa, drafted by San Francisco (STATS)
CAREER RECORD: 2-10
CAREER PASSER RATING: 81.1

2016: Jacoby Brissett, NC State, drafted by New England (STATS)
CAREER RECORD: 12-20
CAREER PASSER RATING: 84.1

2016: Cody Kessler, USC, drafted by Cleveland (STATS)
CAREER RECORD: 2-10
CAREER PASSER RATING: 83.7

2015: Garrett Grayson, Colorado St, drafted by New Orleans (STATS)
CAREER RECORD: DNP
CAREER PASSER RATING: N/A

2013: Mike Glennon, NC State, drafted by Tampa Bay (STATS)
CAREER RECORD: 6-21
CAREER PASSER RATING: 83.5

Add it all up, and that's a cumulative 30-70 record in 100 starts, and a cumulative passer rating of 82.48, which is a passer rating equivalent of the 29th best passer in the NFL in 2020. Basically, these eight names form an amalgam of 2020 Nick Foles, who the Chicago Bears benched midway through the season for Mitchell Trubisky. In other words, don't get your hopes up about Davis Mills, and you won't be disappointed when he performs like a third round pick.

Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
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Sean Pendergast is a contributing freelance writer who covers Houston area sports daily in the News section, with periodic columns and features, as well. He also hosts afternoon drive on SportsRadio 610, as well as the post game show for the Houston Texans.
Contact: Sean Pendergast