When the 2026 NFL schedule was released back in May, the first month of the Houston Texans’ slate of games looked like a real challenge, but a challenge that the Texans, especially with their elite level defense, could embrace and possibly even thrive. Home games against three list quarterbacks with a trip to Indy embedded in between looked like a chance to make a statement. Hell, I even said it would be “fun.”
As it turns out, there’s been nothing fun about the first three weeks, if you’re a Houston Texans fan. For the second straight season, the team has started 0-3, and they now sport a 7-22-1 combined record in the first three games of the season, going back to 2017. If there is a statement being made by the 2026 Houston Texans, it’s “holy hell, were WE ever overrated coming into the season!”
The offense has sputtered, special teams units are giving up ungodly chunks of valuable field position, the defense, while good, has not been great. Worst of all, DeMeco Ryans has had easily his worst season as a head coach — in preparation, at the podium, making in-game decisions, everything. To be clear, I think the Texans could have a completely lost season, and Ryans probably survives, but don’t tell that to the oddsmakers.
We outlined in this space last week that Ryans was as high up the odds board to be the first NFL head coach fired as he’d been at any time in his career. Well, not surprisingly, completely botching game management against the Colts, and being the main reason your team remains winless, is an easy ticket into the HOV lane of the “first head coach fired” odds, because Ryans’ odds went all the way from +1200 (12 to 1, in plain English) to +800 (8 to 1, obviously): Courtesy of BetOnline.ag:
Todd Bowles -120
Matt LaFleur +220
Jim Harbaugh +650
DeMeco Ryans +800
Shane Steichen +900
Mike Vrabel +900
Dan Quinn +900
Nick Sirianni +1600
Aaron Glenn +2500
David Canales +2500
Dan Campbell +6600
The interesting thing about this odds board is how accomplished this leaderboard is. The top four most likely to be fired, which includes Ryans, have all been perennial playoff teams the last three seasons, with the Bucs’ missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker being the only playoff miss among those four head coaches since 2023. Hell, run your finger further down the list, and Mike Vrabel (6th on the board) was in the Super Bowl last year, Dan Quinn (7th) was in the NFC title game in 2024, and Nick Sirianni (8th) has literally been to the playoffs every season he’s been in Philly. He’s won a Super Bowl!
It’s a stark reminder that “NFL,” in the minds of many, really does stand for “Not For Long,” if you’re a head coach. I’ll repeat, I think Ryans being this high up the board is a little silly. The McNairs love him. However, there is no denying the math — one team in NFL history has even made the playoffs after an 0-4 start (1992 Chargers), let alone win a Super Bowl. The Dallas Cowboys come into Reliant Stadium on Sunday with a chance to, for all intents and purposes, end the Texans’ 2026 season before we even get to bye week.
That’s what’s at stake on Sunday.
