The Astros are in a curious offseason position. They have one huge name free agent and, at minimum, a pair of stalwart pitchers unlikely to return. They are also counting on the return from injury for several players who could play a significant role well beyond 2025.
But, in reality, this is not the make-or-break offseason. That is more likely to come after 2025 when marquee names like Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez become free agents. Still, there is a case to be made for starting on that inevitable reset for the franchise now in hopes of preventing the kind of downturn owner Jim Crane has promised would not happen on his watch.
The last time the Astros rebuilt, it required the worst three-year run in team history, but the results were undeniable. As this team finally ages out of that golden era, there are ways to staunch the bleeding and even keep the team in the hunt for the postseason, but GM Dana Brown and Crane need to start now. Here are some things they need to consider.
Deal with third base.
Alex Bregman is the latest in a line of home-grown talent now mature and headed for free agency. The problem this time is that there is no Jeremy Peña waiting in the wings to take his place at third base. That means the hot corner must be a priority for the Astros this offseason. Bregman is going to want something north of the six-year $151 million deal signed by Matt Chapman whose numbers and age are comparable. Crane doesn’t usually dole out those kinds of contracts. But if Bregman doesn’t return, another big name free agent will need to take his place or the dropoff will be substantial.
The smart move would be to re-sign Bregman keeping both his talent and his proven veteran leadership in the clubhouse. Jose Altuve has been outspoken in his belief that Bregman should remain on the team, and, beyond Altuve, Bregman is really the last of the position players from the group that won the first World Series. Given the failure of the Jose Abreu deal, it makes more sense to go with what you know and keep Bregman in the fold. But, if that isn’t possible, Crane will need to crack the checkbook for some other big name at that position.
Allow veteran pitchers to walk.
Conversely, there are several veteran pitchers for whom their time with the Astros should be over. That begins with Justin Verlander, who was unable to reach the innings pitched mark which would have guaranteed his salary for one more season. JV is an icon, but at 41, he is not worth the money he probably can get on the open market. There is also Ryan Pressly. As great as he has been throughout his Astros tenure, his age and potential cost as a setup man is just too high. The Astros have a $2 million buyout option for 2025. They should take it.
With one exception…
Yussei Kikuchi was one of the best midseason acquisitions for any team at the trade deadline this season. The lefty starter was outstanding as an Astro, reclaiming his form after a rough start in Toronto. While Kikuchi is a free agent, it seems apparent his resurgence here could be a precursor to an extension. Obviously, a lot will depend on the cost, but a swap of Verlander for Kikuchi makes a lot of sense and keeps a solid veteran lefty in what should again be a very good starting rotation.
Promote aggressively.
One area that has been refreshing under Brown has been the willingness to move guys through the minor league system quickly when warranted. Few expected Spencer Arrighetti to spend a full season in the bigs or guys like Zach Dezenzo and Joey Loperfido to get their shot. But, it happened and in the case of Arrighetti, he showed he is ready to be a big time starter in this league. Additionally, the Astros have moved young players up the ladder in the minors with players like Jacob Melton, Brice Matthews and Miguel Ullola already at Triple A Sugar Land. The 20-year-old outfielder Luiz Baez won’t be far behind.
This should absolutely continue to be the trend, particularly if the Astros can begin to finally replenish their decimated farm system.
Consider a bold trade.
If the Astros were going to make any kind of a deal with a star player, this is the offseason to do it. Both Tucker and Valdez are one year away from free agency. Dealing either would likely bring a haul of players, some of them high end prospects, back in return. More importantly, it might be the way to address holes at first base or third depending on the situation with Bregman.
The conversation probably starts with Valdez, who is still one of the best two starters in the rotation, but someone they could afford to lose if they retain Kikuchi, particularly with Luis Garcia returning from injury and the ascension of Arrighetti. It would certainly hurt less than dealing Tucker, who is such an anchor in the lineup and the outfield. But Tucker would bring the biggest return for sure.
It is not like the Astros to make deals prior to free agency instead preferring to take the compensatory picks and rebuild from within. But with a depleted farm system and a reasonable expectation that at least one of these two guys is gone in a year, if there was ever a time to pull the trigger, this is likely it.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
