Update: A report Monday afternoon citing team sources claims that manager Joe Espada was told his contract will not be renewed in the offseason and he could either leave now or stay on until the end of the season, and he has elected to remain. More to come on this developing story.
The Astros “parted ways” with GM Dana Brown on Monday in an announcement. Brown’s tenure was marred most notably by a very ugly season for Houston amidst a number of roster stumbles, particularly with the starting pitching. Brown was already in the final year of his contract, but owner Jim Crane pulled the trigger after five straight lost series (including a disaster over the weekend against the league-worst A’s) as the team fights for the division.
Brown’s legacy is not going to be well regarded even if he was dealt a pretty tough hand while being under a mandate to rebuild the abysmal farm system and keep the major league club winning. Ultimately, he fell short and the Astros will move on. There will be time to dissect his time in Houston, but let’s look at what happened and where the Astros go from here.
Brown never felt like a generational hire.
When the former Braves exec was hired in January 2023, he was known for his ability to find quality talent through scouting. He had a nice stable of young players in Atlanta to show for it. But Brown walked into a fraught situation where he was directed to improve the ballclub via the minor leagues even though the team was still being sanctioned for the 2017 cheating scandal, and the major league team had been hamstrung by some awful decisions by Crane, Jeff Bagwell and Reggie Jackson over the winter.
Still, Brown never felt like the guy in charge. Certainly not like Jeff Luhnow, Crane’s first GM and the architect of the Astros decade-long dynasty. And not even like James Click, whose ill-fated time with the Astros was marred by clashes with Crane. Brown has always felt like the guy bridging the gap between what the Astros had and what they ultimately want.
His best move was a big one.
Lest we forget, Brown was GM during the trade that sent Kyle Tucker to Chicago for Cam Smith, Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski. Smith is the team’s best young talent, Paredes continues to be a stalwart at third, and Wesneski has returned from a full season lost to injury and pitched pretty well. Tucker, meanwhile, has struggled even after signing the ginormous contract with the Dodgers last offseason.
There is no doubt the deal had Crane’s fingers all over it, but landing Smith out of the deal (and figuring out they could move him to the outfield) along with a pair of solid players was a good haul for a guy who was going to walk in free agency.
Despite his reputation, the farm system has continued to struggle.
Brown has been widely touted for how he handed the minors in Atlanta and with good reason. But, since his arrival, the Astros farm system has gone from being ranked 29th to 27th. For the first time in years, they have two players on the MLB top 100 prospects list, but both were drafted this summer.
Additionally, there have been swings and misses with fringe players far too numerous to mention. It is possible a few players emerge as future Astros stars, but you have to squint to see them. This certainly is not what Crane wanted when he brought Brown in to turn around the Astros future prospects.
The starting pitching this year ultimately sealed his fate.
Brown, in an effort to bolster a pitching staff beset with injuries that last two seasons, simply flopped. From Tatsuya Imai to Mike Burrows to Ryan Weiss to the trade of Spencer Arrighetti for a rented Daulton Varsho, it has been a massive bummer of a season for the starting pitching staff.
Credit is due for landing Peter Lambert and Kai Wei Tang, but Lambert appears to finally be crashing back to earth after amassing a boatload of innings and Tang hasn’t been good (and mostly not with the team) after the first third of the year.
What happens next?
It feels like the Astros need someone to really steer the ship. Fans are understandably concerned that, at least for now, it will be Brown’s former assistant GMs along with Crane and Bagwell holding the rudder. It’s ironic that someone who holds such a historic place in Houston baseball lore as Bagwell has become such a controversial figure, but signing Jose Abreu will do that for you.
Crane has never been thought of as a particularly meddlesome owner, but he may need to loosen his grip on the “the window for a championship will always be open while I’m the owner of the Astros” concept. That is the kind of thing that caused real problems for former owner Drayton McLane as he continued to sign mid-level veterans in an effort to keep the team competitive, albeit mediocre.
When he bought the team, Crane went full visionary with his signing of Lunhow. Yes, it ended badly, but the success on the field could absolutely not be second guessed. They don’t need the kind of toxic environment it ultimately became, but the Astros also don’t want to settle for mediocre, particularly after the golden era of baseball this fan base just witnessed.
