When it comes to excess, this Sunday’s Super Bowl, the 58th edition of America’s biggest sporting event, has a chance to be the symbol of excessiveness in every way, shape, and form. With the game being played in Las Vegas, there has never been a glitzier Super Bowl. With Taylor Swift’s involvement, viewership should be at an all time high. Finally, according to the American Gaming Association, this should be the most wagered upon Super Bowl in history.
It’s believed that 68 million American adults plan to place bets on the Super Bowl, or about 1 in 4. These include bets with the increasing number of legal outlets, illegal bets, and overseas sports books. This represents a whopping 35 percent increase over last year’s betting activity, which was a record at that time.
So, if you want to do what all the cool kids are doing, or at least what 1 in 4 adults are doing, then dammit, start gambling on the Super Bowl! One great way to do this (as you know, if you read my material here) is via prop bets on stats for certain players in the game. Here are five bets that I will be playing this Sunday:
BROCK PURDY OVER 12.5 rushing yards (-125)
I’m a much bigger fan of betting rushing yard totals on quarterbacks than I am passing yard totals, where there is way less correlation between piling up yards and winning. Let’s start with Purdy in that rushing realm, where he’s averaged 17.2 yards rushing per game in his playoff career, including 48 yards in the NFC title game. 12.5 yards is one good scramble.
MAHOMES OVER 4.5 rushing attempts
For Mahomes, I’ll go with the over on attempts, as he is very mobile, and isn’t afraid to use his legs to move the chains. Hell, you even get credit for a rushing attempt when he takes a knee to kill the clock, maybe at the end of the half, or if the Chiefs are winning, at the end of the game.
TRAVIS KELCE OVER 70.5 receiving yards
TRAVIS KELCE OVER 6.5 catches
Kelce has 23 catches in three playoff games, and he is averaging 87 yards per game in the playoffs. Based on the AFC title game win in Baltimore, where Kelce had 11 catches for 116 yards on 11 targets, he and Mahomes are clearly dialed in with one another.
BRANDON AIYUK first catch over 13.5 yards (+105)
We know that Kyle Shanahan’s offense is built heavily on the ability to get receivers some yards after the catch. Aiyuk is certainly capable of a catch and run over 13.5 yards, but what makes Aiyuk an even better bet is that he is the primary downfield target for Purdy, accounting for over 57 percent of the Niners “air yards,” basically yards BEFORE catch, in the playoffs. In other words, when they attack deep, it’s often to Aiyuk.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
