The Rockets open their season in Orlando Tuesday night in what is expected to be something of a transitional year for the young team. Gone are the good feelings just based on development time. “Phase two” means they need some wins to go along with that talent growth.
To that end, they added a new coach and brought in some veterans to go with the extreme youth movement of the last three seasons. But, just how good can they be? It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that this team could work their way up to mediocrity, which would be a big step forward.
If they are going to be a team that makes a 10-plus-game leap, there will need to be some significant improvement in a few areas. Let’s take a look.
Play with better cohesiveness.
We don’t say “chemistry” here because this team already seems to have pretty good chemistry as people. What they need is cohesiveness on the floor. It’s not something that will come overnight, but new point guard Fred VanVleet should help significantly. VanVleet is one of the best in assist-to-turnover ratio and can act as a de facto coach on the floor. New coach Ime Udoka is also preaching communication, particularly on defense, and it has been noticeable in the preseason.
Don’t be surprised if it takes six to eight weeks to see results on the offensive side of the ball, but there should be immediate impacts defensively. If they can limit turnovers on offense, a difficult task for a still young team, the ones they create at the other end of the floor should lead to easier baskets and better results. But it will take time.
Defend with intensity.
This team already has who should be three or four of the better perimeter defenders in the game with VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Tari Eason and Jabari Smith, Jr. Rookie Amen Thompson already is showing signs of being a quality defender early in his career as well. The uptick will help as will the communication Udoka preaches.
And this is not a team that doesn’t hustle. Even in the midst of losing, they were a team that worked hard and all they’ve done is add more hustle guys to the roster. But, for them to be really good defensively, they will need to understand their individual roles on the floor. The best teams on that end of the floor play great because they know how to rotate and cover the holes in the defense before the offense can take advantage. If they figure out those rotations, they have a chance to be one of the better defensive teams in the league.
Be efficient.
The Rockets were 27th in offensive rating last season, 29th in assist percentage and dead last in effective field goal percentage. They were not just bad on offense, they took bad shots, didn’t pass well and, most importantly, shot really poorly, in fact, worse than virtually anyone at just 43 percent from the floor and an abysmal 32 percent from three.
While they haven’t exactly added lights out shooters to the roster, a combination of improvement from younger players mixed with better (more open) shots will definitely make a difference. More than anything else, they need to learn how to play together to become more efficient. Just moving from the bottom five teams to, for example, top 20 in the aforementioned categories would see a huge jump in offensive play and scoring. That will mean getting guys like Jalen Green and Smith more wide open looks as well as setting their athletes up for easy buckets.
Run.
Speaking of easy buckets, there is perhaps no better way to make that happen than to get out on the floor and run. This team is loaded with guys in their early 20s making them ideal candidates for repeated fast breaks. We know they can score in the paint, but can they do that in transition while still defending going the other way? We’ll see.
When you look at the top tier athletes on the roster like Green, Thompson, Smith and rookie Cam Whitmore, it is impossible not to be a little excited at the prospect of seeing these thoroughbreds run other teams off the court. But, they’ll need to be effective and make shots. Last season, the Rockets were 21st in points off turnovers. They have the talent to be top 10 in that category. They were also 20th in fast break points. They ought to be top 10.
This is the one area where the Rockets should be able to get markedly better and quickly, and they better they are at running, the more efficient they will be scoring the basketball and the more effective defending.
Vegas Over/Under on Rockets Wins in 2023-24: 31.5
Season Record Prediction: 34-48
A 12-game jump in wins would be a huge achievement for the Rockets and their new coach. They will make mistakes and there will be struggles, but this team absolutely should see real improvement, which will result in a bump in wins.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
