In 2023, the Astros used exactly eight starting pitchers the entire season. That is truly a remarkable number. Wanna hear another one? In 2024, they have already had seven starters on the injured list. That includes a pair of pitchers who will miss the remainder of the season (and most of 2025) in Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy.
On Wednesday, the Astros announced both starters would undergo elbow surgery this week and would not return in 2024. It is yet another huge blow to a rotation absolutely wrecked by injuries. Justin Verlander started the year on the IL and Framber Valdez has spent time there. The team is still waiting for Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers, Jr. to return from injuries suffered last season.
So, what do they do now? Given their record, you might think a year in the tank would make the most sense, but with their lineup and the fact that they play in the worst division in baseball with an expanded postseason, that probably isn’t in the cards. Here are a few options for GM Dana Brown to consider.
Roll with what they’ve got.
This is the most likely option, but it leaves something to be desired. If they lose anyone else, they could be in serious trouble. Ronel Blanco, for as good as he has been, has never thrown more than 100 innings in a season. Spencer Arrighetti has never thrown more than 124. Yes, it does appear Garcia and McCullers will return eventually, but how much will they actually be able to provide given how long they have been out, particularly McCullers. No matter which way you slice it, it’s a tough situation.
Get into the buyer’s market.
Dana Brown has been insistent that the Astros will not be sellers at the trading deadline. In fact, they might actually be buyers, particularly for starting pitching talent. The problem is their minor league system is so depleted, it’s hard to imagine what assets they have to make any significant deal. If they aren’t willing to deal from their major league roster, that only leaves the minors but any more dealing from those ranks will make an already empty cupboard even more bare. Tough to see how they make that work.
Promote from within.
The Astros already did this with Arrighetti, probably before they really wanted to do so. But, it has paid off as the rookie pitcher has been a solid part of the rotation. They also lucked out with Ronel Blanco, a player no one expected to be a starter this year. In the minors, there isn’t really anyone above AA ball ready to contribute except maybe A.J. Blubaugh. The righty has been quite good in Sugar Land this year after tearing up Corpus Christi in 2023. Additionally, Jake Bloss has exploded up the ranks and could be ready for AAA during this season. He currently has a 1.28 ERA with the Hooks in Corpus Christi. But, would either offer any real substantial help? It feels like both are at least a year out from being ready for the majors.
Consider selling…seriously.
Brown and the Astros are adamant they are not going to be sellers at the trade deadline, but it begs the question: why exactly? Given the state of the AL West and the fact that the team remains pretty loaded with big league talent, it’s easy to understand the general level of optimism, but when you factor in how bad they have looked over the first third of the season, that hope has to be tempered. And they are going to have to face a reckoning with rebuilding at some point. This is the least likely option, but it should be under serious consideration.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
