If we are strictly looking at the standings in the American League, you would think the Houston Astros have fewer concerns than the average baseball team. However, the fact of the matter is that the Astros have played above their heads all season long. They’re 19-8 in one run games, and ran off a slew of victories in the month of June with several players and pitchers who should have been playing in Sugar Land.
If Joe Espada isn’t the AL Manager of the Year, then the only one who deserves consideration ahead of him, somewhat ironically, is Detroit’s A.J. Hinch. The former Astros manager has led the Tigers to the best record in the American League. Espada, though, has done an incredible job, piecing together lineups, and managing the pitching staff amidst a sea of injuries.
As of the All Star break, the Astros sit at 56-40, 2.5 games out of first place overall in the AL. They’re five games ahead of the Mariners in their division. They’re in pretty good shape, especially with an extremely favorable schedule over the final two months of the season.
However, there are always concerns, and for a team on pace for 97 wins, there are more concerns than usual. Here are my four biggest as we prepare for another exhilarating summer and fall of relevant baseball in Houston:
Hunter Brown’s shaky last few starts
Hunter Brown made the American League All Star team, and deservedly so. Up until a couple weeks ago, his name was on the short list of players who deserved to start for the American League on the mound in the Midsummer Classic. As it turns out, he chose to bow out of the game, and get some much needed rest.
Brown’s final two starts before the All Star break were two of the worst he’s had in the last 14 months. After sporting a sub 2.00 ERA all season, his last two starts (6 earned runs allowed against Cleveland, four earned runs allowed versus Texas) have put him at a still respectable 2.43 ERA on the season. However, with the Astros margin for error so slim, they need ace level starts from Brown practically every time out. The last two starts were anything but that.
Christian Walker’s inability to make contact
Walker was the team’s big splurge in free agency this offseason, inking a three-year, $60 million deal. Walker’s strongest suit has been his defense, as he’s a three time Gold Glove winner. Well, that version of Walker has yet to show up, as he’s is at an even ZERO Outs Above Average, after exceeding a dozen each of the last three seasons. Even worse, Walker has been dismal offensively, with a .660 OPS at the All Star break, and strikeouts in 30 percent of his at bats. I don’t know about you, Astros fans, but I can’t do two more years of this, especially after surviving the Jose Abreu experience.
Bullpen, real or mirage?
When you have a 19-8 record in one run games, chances are your bullpen is among the best in the league. Sure enough, that’s the case with the Astros, as Dana Brown has managed to supplement Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader with several no-name arms who have exceeded expectations. Bryan King, Steven Okert, and Bennett Sousa are all left handed arms with ERA’s under 3.00. Josh Hader has blown one save all season. As a group, the Astros’ bullpen has the third best ERA (3.30) and best WHIP (1.14) in all of baseball. Can the bullpen keep up this level of performance in the second half?
All of the wounded, what can we trust?
The injury situation is utterly ridiculous with this team, even worse than last season, when we were calling THAT season’s injury situation utterly ridiculous. Here are the big injuries, with the latest reports, ranked in order of optimism that these players will come back and play well, if they play at all:
1. JEREMY PENA
Pena suffered a cracked rib suffered on June 27. Pena was recently seen taking ground balls and doing simple exercises. I can’t imagine a rib being an injury where there is a setback, so hopefully Pen is back shortly after the All Star break
2. SPENCER ARRIGEHTTI
Arrigehtti suffered a broken hand in a freak accident, getting hit by a line drive before an April game in Seattle. He’s spent the last couple weeks in Florida throwing batting practice, and is returning to Houston for a rehab stint starting next week.
3. CRISTIAN JAVIER
Javier underwent Tommy John surgery a little over a year ago, and thus far, his rehab has gone very smoothly. In his last rehab start, Javier hit 95 MPH on the gun. GM Dana Brown emphatically declared over the weekend, on the team’s pregame show, that Javier should contribute this season.
4. LUIS GARCIA
Garcia is coming up on TWO years since his Tommy John surgery. He’s suffered a couple setbacks along the way, but now has made it to rehab starts and is hitting 94 MPH on the gun. He is expected back after Javier.
5. YORDAN ALVAREZ
This is the most important injury, perhaps in baseball, right now. Alvarez’s balky right hand has been misdiagnosed by the team’s medical staff, scrutinized by media, and prayed for by every Astros fan. Thursday is a big day, as the hand will be evaluated, and next steps determined. Alvarez supposedly is feeling no pain in the hand right now, which is progress. I hate counting on anything when it comes to news on Alvarez. This has been a brutal journey.
6. JAKE MEYERS
Meyers strained a calf in a weekend series against the Dodgers back in early July. Four days later, he tried to come back from the injury and re-strained it running out to take the field before the first inning. The latest on Meyers is that he will be out for “at least three weeks,” which in Astros lingo means “forever.” If the Astros are pursuing center fielders at the trade deadline, that will tell you the severity of this one.
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