Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, over his last eight starts in NFL games, dating back to last season, has been one of the worst quarterbacks in all of football. That’s not an opinion, that’s not a hot take, that’s a statistical fact. Lawrence has a record of 0-8 in those eight starts with a passer rating of 79.7. For some reason, the Jaguars felt the need to give Lawrence a five-year, $275 million extension during the offseason.
So here comes Lawrence and the Jags to town this weekend, and while the numbers in the above paragraph should make Texans fans jubilant, especially with their team coming off a 34-7 embarrassment at the hands of the Vikings, just know that the last time Lawrence looked like he was worth $275 million was in Week 12 last season, a 24-21 win over the Texans at NRG Stadium.
The Texans cannot take anybody lightly at this point, considering their difficulties (a) running the football and (b) NOT committing stupid penalties. In fact, let’s start there on laying out things to watch for on Sunday at an NRG Stadium whose roof will likely be closed, and is fortunately now fully repaired from Hurricane Beryl. Yay, county!
4. PENALTIES!
In Week 2, the Texans hammered the Bears on a play to play basis, averaging 5.1 yards per play on offense and only giving up a paltry 3.1 yards per play on defense. So why was the final score 19-13? Why did the defense have to make a stop to save the game in the end? Simple. PENALTIES! The Texans committed 12 penalties for 115 yards. Instead of correcting that trend after a win, though, they came out on Sunday against a good Vikings team and committed 11 penalties for 88 yards, many of them drive killers, and many of them (five, to be exact) committed by Laremy Tunsil. DeMeco Ryans has promised a cleaner game this week, but the fact of the matter is that’s not a high bar to clear. The Texans have been an undisciplined mess the last two games.
3. Protect the edge
The pass protection was not great last Sunday either, with the Vikings notching four sacks, three of them from former Texan Jonathan Greenard. The Texans found themselves, multiple times, with Greenard or other stout defensive linemen, matched up one on one with tight ends, including rookie Cade Stover. The Jaguars have very talented edge rushers in Josh Hines-Allen and former No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker. If the offensive line gives Stroud time to throw, good things typically happen, even if the Texans can’t run the football.
2. Heat up Trevor
On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars had similar difficulty protecting Lawrence in Monday night’s 47-10 ass kicking that the Bills put on them. Lawrence was sacked four times, hit nine times, and was clearly seeing ghosts by the third quarter. The Jaguars have some talented weapons at running back (Travis Etienne) and wide receiver (Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas, Gabe Davis), so if Lawrence gets comfortable, he can still sling it. He threw for 364 yards in the aforementioned 24-21 win in Houston last season. Lawrence is considered by experts a “first read” guy, eating he has trouble going through his progressions. It will be interesting to see how much DeMeco Ryans chooses to blitz Lawrence. Ryans lit up Caleb Williams with blitzes two weeks ago, and I could see that happening again.
1. Get a guy fired!
Here’s the deal — the Jaguars are teetering on the brink of a lost season, at 0-3 and a touchdown underdog in their fourth game. Doug Pederson’s name has climbed to second on the odds board of “head coach most likely to get fired.” Other odds boards have Bill Belichick as the next Jags head coach. My point is this — FINISH HIM, TEXANS! It’s been a fun ride so far with Ryans as the head coach, but there is no doubt that this team lacks a bit of killer instinct. They let inferior teams hang around, and they get housed by equal or better teams. If they get up 10-0 or 14-0, the Texans have to make sure this is a game where the starters are on the sideline late in the fourth yukking it up, and not in the game trying to make up for a dozen penalties and a couple bad turnovers. END DOUG PEDERSON!
SPREAD: Texans -7
PREDICTION: Texans 27, Jaguars 17
SEASON RECORD: SU 2-1, ATS 0-3
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
