As the iconic musical duo Simon and Garfunkel once sang, “Hello darkness my old friend, I’ve come to talk with you again.” In a very poignant way, this lyric applies to the 2024 Houston Texans, except instead of “darkness,” substitute “first Saturday of January,” because when the Houston Texans make the postseason, and they’ve now done it eight times, they open their Super Bowl quest at 3:30 p.m. on wild card Saturday. Every single damn time.
This season continues the tradition like no other, the Houston Texans Invitational I call it, the Texans opening the entire playoffs at home, largely being disrespected and dismissed by the football world, despite an overall record of 5-2 in these Saturday openers. This postseason, like last postseason, the Texans open the playoffs as an underdog, this time a three point dog to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The matchups in this game are compelling. Both head coaches, DeMeco Ryans and Jim Harbaugh, are well respected. Both quarterbacks, C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert, are viewed as talented, but probably on that next tier below the best of the best. Both defenses get after it. This should be fun! Here are four things to watch for:
4. Home field advantage
Going into Week 18, it was basically down to two possible opponents for the Texans in this game — the Chargers or the Steelers. Had the Steelers won in Week 18 over the Bengals, there would likely have been at least 25,000, likely more, Steeler fans invading NRG Stadium. The Chargers, on the other hand, barely have any fans in their HOME stadium, let alone on the road, This is good news, as the Texans’ defense, aside from the loss to the Ravens, have been excellent at home against good quarterbacks. Josh Allen, Jared Goff, and Tua Tagolvailoa all had their worst games of the season in Houston. Herbert is around or below the level of all three of them. The crowd needs to bring it on Saturday.
3. Who, other than Nico?
The Texans’ wide receiver room has been crushed with two big injuries since Week 8 — Stefon Diggs tearing his ACL and Tank Dell tearing pretty much everything below his femur. Nico Collins, when he’s been on the field has shown that he is one of the ten best receivers in football. To win this game, and go any further in the playoffs after Saturday, the Texans need a second weapon in the passing (and probably a third, if we’re being honest, but let’s walk before we run). Diontae Johnson, acquired three weeks ago, certainly has the next best skill set in the group, after Collins. Dalton Schultz and Robert Woods have the next best resumes. John Metchie is still more about intrigue and potential than production. In other words, there’s no perfect answer. Hell, there may be no answer at all, ultimately, but one or more of these guys need to step up.
2. Linebackers finally whole
The Texans’ big splurge at the linebacker position this past offseason was signing Azeez Al-Shaair to a three year deal. When Al-Shaair has been on the field, he’s been a fantastic leader and very productive. Meanwhile, Christian Harris, who played like a Pro Bowler in the playoffs last season, missed the entire season until Week 15, the first game of Al-Shaair’s suspension for decapitating Trevor Lawrence. Harris missed Week 18, Al-Shaair’s first game back from suspension, I say all this to say that we FINALLY get Al-Shaair, Harris, and the third linebacker Henry To’o To’o on the field at the same time for the first time all year this Saturday. Against a team that loves to run the football like the Chargers, this is great news, because if the Texans can get the Chargers into bad down and distance situations, then…..
1. Heat on Herbert
…. it makes it that much easier to get heat on Herbert. The strength of this Texans team is their standout defensive end tandem of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, both of whom had double digit sacks this season. They’ll be going against a banged up version of Pro Bowler Rashawn Slater at left tackle (if he plays) and a rookie, albeit a good one, in Joe Alt at right tackle. Herbert’s numbers under pressure are not great. He had a 72 passer rating and threw all three of his interceptions while under pressure this season. This is non negotiable, the Texans MUST heat up Justin Herbert.
SPREAD: Chargers -3
PREDICTION: Texans 23, Chargers 20
SEASON RECORD: 12-5 SU, 5-12 ATS
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