This Sunday’s game at NRG Stadium between the Houston Texans and the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars is a pretty simple breakdown —- it’s a steel cage match, in which two teams walk in, and the winner will walk out the leader in the AFC South, heading into the month of December. This is the most important home game for the Texans since the wild card round of the 2019 playoffs. This is fun!
I don’t think it was a huge reach to say the Texans would be the second best team in the division in 2023. After all, the Colts and the Titans didn’t exactly enter 2023 with high hopes. However, the fact that DeMeco Ryans has the Texans at 6-4 on the season (6-2 since their 0-2 start) is remarkable.
Ryans’ first career win took place in Jacksonville in Week 3. He and his team will be looking for a repeat on Sunday, in a game where they are 1.5 point underdogs at home. The Texans are 2-0 as home underdogs this season. Let’s roll!
Here are a few things to watch for on Sunday, in what should be a raucous NRG Stadium:
4. Bobby Slowik’s feel in the run game
It looks like the Texans will be getting Dameon Pierce back from his ankle injury this week. He’d missed the last few games, but while he was gone, the Texans seemed to have discovered their run game behind Devin Singletary, who ran for 150 and 112 yards the last two weeks, respectively. How Slowik mixes Pierce back in, hopefully without disrupting Singletary’s mojo, will be interesting to see. Additionally, Slowik, needs to do a better job play calling in short yardage situations. No more Mike Boone and Andrew Beck!
3. Dalton Schultz
It took Schultz a few games to get things going in 2023, but since the Week 4 win over Pittsburgh, Schultz has been among the most productive tight ends in all of football. He’s been a huge target for Stroud in the red zone (5 touchdown catches in the last 7 games), and if you take his yardage from the last seven games and extrapolate it over 17 games, he is a 986 yard monster! Why is that important in this game? Well, it’s because Jacksonville is 31st in the league at defending tight ends. Schultz could have a BIG day on Sunday.
2. The Return of the Sting
It was fantastic to see Derek Stingley, Jr. back on the field two weeks ago, and then see him last week actually start making some plays — six tackles, two passes defended, and a big time interception on a deep ball. THAT is what Nick Caserio thought he was drafting with the third overall pick in 2022. On Sunday, Stingley will need to bring his A game again, as the Jaguars have their full complement of wide receivers — Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, and Zay Jones. That’s a pretty scary threesome.
1. Quarterback battle, now and in the future
The AFC South has waited a long time to have two possibly generational quarterbacks in the division. Recently, it probably came closest in the one season where Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck were both simultaneously healthy in 2018. Now, here comes both of these quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud, and we don’t even have to wait for one team’s rebuild to finish up so they can catch the other one. Both of these teams are talented, hungry, and relevant. Stroud has been the better player this season, and currently holds the 1-0 advantage over Lawrence. The Texans, as a team, hold a 16-3 advantage over the Jags since 2013.
SPREAD: Texans +1
PREDICTION: Texans 27, Jaguars 20
SEASON RECORD: SU 4-6, ATS 5-5
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
