The Houston Texans open the season this Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis, facing the hated Colts. If you’re getting a weird feeling that something important is about to happen, that’s because, for the last two seasons, the results of the Texans’ trip to Indianapolis have had significant ramifications.
In 2022, the Texans and Colts faced off in Week 18 in Indy, and the improbable 32-31 Texans victory meant the Texans were slotted second in the NFL Draft the next spring’s pick which wound up becoming C.J. Stroud. Kind of important. Then last season, Stroud himself led the Texans into Indy in Week 18 with a playoff spot on the line. Again, the Texans emerged victorious, 23-19.
Now, here comes the 2024 season, and the Texans have Super Bowl aspirations. Meanwhile, the Colts, while a few rungs below the Texans on the power ranking ladder, are no slouches themselves. It’s not Wet 18, like the last two seasons, it’s the season opener, but it’s the most important game on the Texans’ schedule, in my opinion.
Win this game, Texans, and that’s an early step up in defending your AFC South crown. The Colts are the second best team in the division, and a win in their place gives the Texans a nice bump in win probability in the division race. Fun fact — the Texans have won eight straight AFC South road games! That goes back through the Lovie Smith and David Culley years!
So let’s go get number nine! Here are four things to watch for:
4. Anthony Richardson
It’s crazy to think that Richardson, who was only able to finish one of his four starts last season, has only started 23 games at quarterback in his life, between high school, college, and the NFL. He is still very inexperienced and VERY raw. Richardson has a cannon for a right arm, but you never know where the cannonball is going to land. In Week 2 last season, Richardson ate up the Texans with his legs, rushing for two long touchdowns, before getting knocked out with a concussion. The key for the Texans on Sunday will be making Richardson have to beat them with his arm. I see the Texans crowding the line of scrimmage, and trying to get Richardson in bad third down situations. This will put rookie CB Kamari Lassiter on an island with the Colts receivers, so the youngster out of Georgia will need to display the maturity that won him the starting corner role.
3. Laremy Tunsil vs Laiatu Latu
Truth be told, the most important matchup in the trenches is probably the Texans’ interior offensive line against DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, the Colts’ two marquee defensive tackles. Those two have made life miserable for the Texans before. However, the sexiest matchup is Tunsil, who played zero snaps in the preseason, against first round rookie edge rusher Laiatu Latu, out of UCLA. Latu is more of a technician than a physical freak, and Tunsil is among the best technicians on the offensive side of the trenches in the entire league. This should be a baptism moment for Latu.
2. Joe Mixon
Like Tunsil, Mixon spent most of training camp working out off to the side, while nursing an injury. In Mixon’s case, it was a quad injury, which is now fully healed. So it still feels a little surreal that Mixon is a Texan, as he has only taken sparse snaps in practice, and none in a game yet. Mixon will be the horse in this backfield, and should bring an explosive element to the passing game out of the backfield. The interesting wrinkle will be who gets the backup running back carries. Cam Akers deserves them, based on performance at training camp, but Dameon Pierce is still listed second behind Mixon on the depth chart.
1. Hell unleashed by Slowik
Finally, the day has come where we get to see an offense with three “number one” caliber wide receivers — Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell — all on the field at the same time, with the most cerebral young quarterback in the game deciding which target to throw to. This is going to be hell unleashed on the Colts, whose secondary is their weak link defensively. This will be like no other Texans’ offense you’ve ever watched, with productivity levels of the Kubiak Era generated by a much more scintillating and QB-centric offense.
SPREAD: Texans -3
PREDICTION: Texans 27, Colts 20
SEASON RECORD: 0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
