Surprises can come in many forms. They can be pleasant surprises, like some office workers charging into your office with a birthday cake to celebrate another year on earth. They can be harrowing surprises, like a deliveryman showing up with divorce papers at your place of business when you thought everything was okay in your marriage.
Same in the world of NFL football. There can be good surprises and bad surprises. We are five games into the season, and Texans GM Nick Caserio says that it’s about four or five games into the season when you start to figure out who and what you have with your squad. Five games in, the Texans are 1-3-1, and honestly, there haven’t been very many surprises.
There have been a few, though, good and bad, and here are the four that come to mind first:
4. Elite rookie class
Nick Caserio’s first draft class with REAL draft capital (2021, they only had five picks and didn’t pick until 67th overall), the 2022 rookie class, was largely lauded the Monday after the draft in April. To date, it has probably exceeded early expectations. The biggest revelation has been fourth round RB Dameon Pierce, who is among the league leaders in rushing, and has become a folk hero to Houston fans, with 33 broken tackles in five games. Defensive backs Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley have played nearly every snap of the season, and guard Kenyon Green is developing nicely. The only thing really holding back this rookie class has been injury, with four of the drafted rookies missing the season with either injury (Christian Harris, Teagan Quitoriano, Austin Deculus) or illness (John Metchie III).
3. Brandin Cooks’ regression
Over the course of his career, Cooks has proven to be a consistent 1,000 yard per season performer, regardless of the team he is playing for, or quarterback that is throwing him the ball. He has had over 1,000 yards in six of his first eight seasons. Unfortunately, the Texans inability to push the ball down the field has affected Cooks’ production. He has just 24 catches on 42 targets, and is on pace for less than 800 yards receiving. At age 29, and as someone who keeps himself in great shape, I doubt that Cooks is hitting an age-based dip, but his usage and lack of productivity is disturbing. If it keeps up, it probably will be one of several things that get Pep Hamilton fired after one season as the offensive coordinator.
2. Red zone defense
For my liking, one of the big goals for the Texans this season would be for the defense to go from abysmal (like the 2021 version) to merely average. Going into the bye week, when it comes to giving up yards each game (29th, 414.2 yards per game) and yards per play (21st, 5.8 yards per play), they are still one of the bottom feeding teams in the league. However, they were only giving up 19.8 points per game, good for 13th in the league. That’s thanks to a defense that has bent but not broken once the opposition is in the red zone. The Texans are 5th in the league at preventing red zone touchdowns, as their opponents have only scored touchdowns on 38.9 percent of red zone trips.
1. Rex Burkhead usage
Rex Burkhead is a 32-year-old running back who’s never actually been a really good NFL player. He’s been solid enough to hang around, and by all accounts, behind the scenes, he is an off the charts leader. Having Burkhead on the Texans is not a problem at all, especially with a rookie running back who could use the mentorship. However, I did NOT expect Burkhead to be the second most targeted Texan in the passing game at this (or any) point in the season. THAT is a big problem.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2022.
