Native Houstonians and recent Bayou City transplants are accustomed to waiting for the ball to drop when it comes to hurricanes. After all, many are still recovering two months after Beryl.
Matt Lanza, meteorologist with Space City Weather, advised residents not to get ahead of themselves as the Atlantic hurricane season is officially over in November. However, he did note that what was forecasted to be an above-average active year has turned out to be relatively calm and “very weird.”
“Houston saw the worst of it so far this hurricane season with Beryl,” Lanza said. “We’re not done yet, so you don’t want to put the car before the horse.”
According to Lanza, there are a couple of possible explanations for the period of inactivity. The season started in a La Niña weather pattern or a pattern that cools water temperatures. Historically, La Niña years always see more named storms.
This pattern and higher-than-average water temperatures created a perfect combination for tropical storm and hurricane development.
But what has happened since the last named storm, Ernesto, in mid-August, Lanza said, is what meteorologists call “Intraseasonal variability” or weather elements that they are unable to forecast months in advance.
These components include a broad stretch of sinking air in the Atlantic, which inhibits storm formation, and the “Atlantic Niña,” or cooler water temperatures collecting off of Africa, south of where tropical waves emerge.
Lanza added that the usual monsoon set up in Africa is further north, which causes tropical waves to come off the shore further north. These waves have to parse through drier air before getting off the coast, so they tend to fall apart before heading toward an ideal environment for development.
“These are all theories at this point more so than anything, it’s going to take a bit of research to really hone in on how things are underachieved,” Lanza said. “I think this highlights a really critical element of how people should approach hurricane season.”
“Seasonal forecasts are interesting, they’re really just scientific exercises,” he added. “If we’re going to bust, you want to bust this way.”
The last time the Atlantic had no named storm formations between August 12 and September 3 was 1968, roughly 56 years ago. Lanza noted looking at the next two weeks, there are some spots for potential development, but “nothing impressive.”
“None are really a slam dunk. I have a feeling we’re going to get to mid-September, and everybody’s going to be like, where are the hurricanes at,” he said.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
