Houstonians may want to reconsider any complaints they have about the persistent heat. Houston area meteorologists say residents have it to thank for warding off possible tropical activity from entering the Texas Gulf Coast.
Matt Lanza, a meteorologist with Space City Weather, said he recently joked with fellow meteorologist Eric Berger that August should bring “all the misery it could bring” to block any potential storm development.
“It keeps us pretty safe from tropical stuff, and we do not want to deal with another hurricane here this year,” Lanza added. “You kind of root for [heat] this time of year.”
This week is forecast to be the hottest week of the summer, with temperatures soaring to the triple digits by Wednesday. Highs on Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain in the upper 90s, between 98 and 99 degrees.
Lanza said the high pressure sitting overhead from a heat dome, which is causing the warm weather, is keeping tropical activity away and is expected to continue to do so for at least the next week or two.
He noted that meteorologists will be watching a tropical wave moving into the Caribbean next week. However, Lanza said if the hot, dry pattern persists, it should drift south of the region without causing any issues.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts that the wave has a roughly 30 percent chance of developing over the next week. Lanza added that it could cross the Yucatan Peninsula into Central America or Mexico.
“If things change over Texas or if that high pressure weakens or shifts a little bit, that’s going to at least crack the door to something coming into the Gulf and toward Texas,” Lanza said. “That doesn’t guarantee that we’re going to see a tropical storm or hurricane, but it’s something that we would want to keep a close eye on if it comes a little further north of the Gulf.”
The heat is also partially responsible for creating conditions to keep Hurricane Debby away from the Texas Gulf Coast. Debby started as a tropical storm and hit Florida’s coast on Monday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. It has since been downgraded back to a tropical storm.
Lanza said Debby was tugged to the north by a low pressure system. Simultaneously, the high pressure system of the heat dome over the west slowed the storm down, not allowing it much wiggle room to move or exit.
Meteorologists have warned residents in the states affected by Debby, including Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, that the projected rainfall totals could climb upward of 20 to 30 inches.
Lanza described the high temperatures in the Houston area as usual for this time of year, noting that last summer was “far worse” overall, with multiple triple-digit days.
So far, only one day of triple-digit heat has been recorded since June 1, which meteorologists consider the beginning of the summer season. Temperatures could climb between 102 and 106 degrees through Friday.
According to Lanza, nighttime lows are unusually high this summer. Most nights remain in the 80s, indicating an increase in overnight temperatures for this time of year.
Lanza noted that weather conditions will start to change in late August and September. Temperatures will get cooler, and the environment will be less stable. Tropical development could be imminent, with numerous candidates in the Atlantic.
“We’re going to have something to watch at least at some point,” Lanza said. “I don’t know exactly when that is, but I would advise people to buckle up. It will be a bit of a bumpy ride for the next couple of months.
The possibility of a Category 3 or 4 hurricane developing and subsequently hitting the region keeps Lanza up at night since Hurricane Beryl — a Category 1 storm — occurred over a month ago.
“I think my whole calculus has changed after Beryl,” Lanza said. “We’re both more vulnerable to even modest hurricane winds, a Category 1 or 2, capable of doing extensive damage.
“If we’re starting to get into August and September when we usually get our bigger storms, and there’s a category 3 or 4 out there, I’m going to be extremely unsettled about what the impacts could be for this area,” he added.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
