If you follow me on social media, listen to my radio show on 95.7 The Fan (station formerly known as SportsRadio 610), or read my content here, you know I love to gamble. You also know that I think one of the most underrated categories in the gambling world is wagering on people’s employment. Betting on hiring and firing is sheer joy.
On the NFL gambling calendar, the release of the odds for “first head coach fired for the upcoming season” is one of the most interesting ones, and here in Houston, it’s actually been relevant prior to DeMeco Ryans’ arrival in 2023. David Culley and Lovie Smith were both very high up the odds board in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and they were preceded by Bill O’Brien, who took home the title after an 0-4 start in 2020.
O’Brien was a +1100 shot to be the first one fired in his termination season, somewhat high up the board. That’s the lesson in this exercise — the favorite hits way less than you’d think. With that in mind, here are this season’s odds, with a few thoughts following:
- Aaron Glenn, NYJ +200
- Todd Bowles, TB +550
- Zac Taylor, CIN +700
- Shane Steichen, IND +750
- Brian Schottenheimer, DAL +1000
- Dan Quinn, WAS +1200
- Nick Sirianni, PHI +1200
- Mike Vrabel, NE +1600
- Kevin O’Connell, MIN +1800
- Dan Campbell, DET +2000
- Matt LaFleur, GB +2200
- Robert Saleh, TEN +2500
- Jim Harbaugh, LAC +3300
- Kellen Moore, NOLA +3300
- Mike McCarthy, PIT +3300
- Kyle Shanahan, SF +4000
- DeMeco Ryans, HOU +5000
- Kevin Stefanski, ATL +8000
- Ben Johnson, CHI +10000
- Sean Payton, DEN +10000
- Todd Monken, CLV +10000
- Mike LaFleur, ARZ +15000
- Jeff Hafley, MIA +20000
- John Harbaugh, NYG +20000
- Andy Reid, KC +25000
- Jesse Minter, BAL +25000
- Joe Brady, BUF +25000
- Klint Kubiak, LVG +25000
- Liam Coen, JAC +30000
- Mike Macdonald, SEA +50000
- Sean McVay, LAR +50000
Okay, a few thoughts on this odds board:
Aaron Glenn is a worthy favorite
If you’re looking for a candidate who’s been chippy with his local media (and thus, not getting much support out there in the community), coaches for owners who’ve fired better coaches than him early in the season (Robert Saleh, 2023), and has Geno Smith as his starting quarterback, say hello to Aaron Glenn! This is a recipe for 3-14. Four of their first six games are against the Packers, Lions, Bears, and Patriots. The opener is against the Titans, who are coached by a vengeful Saleh. Glenn is screwed.
DeMeco Ryans is +5000 and this actually feels like he is too high up the board
Odds of +5000 put Ryans abpout halfway down the board, so that means there are actually over a dozen coaches with longer odds. I’ll say this — if DeMeco Ryans is the first NFL head coach fired, I’ll do my radio show sitting on the median on Interstate 10.
Three of the leaders on the odds board are among the Texans’ first four opponents
The first month of the Texans’ schedule is about as fun as it gets — three home games against the Bills, Bengals, and Cowboys, with a road game at division rival Indy sandwiched in there in Week 3. That first month has it all — MVP candidates, a division rival, an instate rival, and some embattled head coaches! Zac Taylor (Bengals), Shane Steichen (Colts), and Brian Schottenheimer (Cowboys) are third, fourth, and fifth, respectively, on the odds board.
If you’re looking for a good long shot…..
… then you need a team that’s going to stink, has a difficult early schedule, an impetuous owner, and a head coach that’s disposable. The Cleveland Browns and Todd Monken check all these boxes. The Browns will be underdogs in five of their first six games, their owner Jimmy Haslem is a whack job, and Monken is viewed as a stopgap head coach. Let’s cash a +10000 ticket, folks!
