If you purchased a ticket to Sunday’s Christmas Eve tilt between the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium, there was probably a certain “star power” energy you experienced when you hit the “PURCHASE” button on your ticket app. Deshaun Watson versus C.J. Stroud! The Texans past versus the Texans future!
Well, Deshaun Watson is done for the season with a shoulder injury (and even when he was playing wasn’t all that good anyway), and C.J. Stroud, for the second straight week, will miss a game due to a concussion suffered against the Jets in Week 14. So welcome to Case Keenum versus Joe Flacco at NRG Stadium, Part Two!
“What’s that, Sean? Part Two, you say? When was Part One?” you may be asking. Well, I’m glad you asked, because there are some serious parallels between this game and Week 16 of the 2014 season. IN that game, the QB-depleted Texans had to pull Keenum out of his deer lease to start the final two games of the season, and this was his first week back in 2014. Flacco’s Ravens, like Flacco’s Browns in 2023, were 9-5 going into the game.
In that game, the Texans, who are a 2.5 point underdog this Sunday, were five point underdogs and were able to pull off the 25-13 upset, on the strength of six Randy Bullock field goals. A similar outcome this Sunday for Keenum and the Texans would go a long way to securing a playoff spot, whether it’s a wild card spot, or perhaps even winning the division.
It should be a fascinating Sunday at NRG Stadium, up to and including exactly what the makeup of the crowd will be. Browns fans travel, but do they travel for a game the day before Christmas? Are Texans fans bought in on this team enough to finally fill the stadium to the hilt on a holiday weekend? In fact, let’s start there with these four things to watch for:
4. NRG Energy
The Texans have played plenty of home games this season against teams whose fan bases travel, the most noteworthy being the Steelers and Broncos. The Browns are in that category, as well, and that is with a far more checkered history record-wise than either Pittsburgh or Denver. I’m guessing there were a ton of Browns fans who purchased tickets before the season, hoping to back Deshaun Watson on his second return to NRG Stadium. Of course, Watson’s Browns debut came in Week 13 last season here in Houston. The stakes get higher with each game, but it still appears as through the Texans will have to wait for 2024 for the season ticket holders to stop selling their tickets before the season.
3. Texans run defense
The Texans have gone from one of the worst run defenses in the history of the league in 2022 to one of the best in the league this season. Certainly the addition of Will Anderson (who is likely to miss Sunday’s game) and the ascension of Jonathan Greenard (more on him in a moment) on the edge have been a huge part of that, but credit the veterans on the interior of the defensive line, Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins, who have been getting a great push up the middle, and were huge reasons last week that the Texans held Derrick Henry to a record low output (10 yards) for a player with 20 touches in a game. The Texans should have some success again this weekend against a banged up Browns offensive line. Speaking of which….
2. Jonny Sack
Jonathan Greenard has really come into his own this season, and last Sunday’s win over the Titans may have provided Greenard’s masterpiece, as he had two sacks and was a general menace all day, and he did it WITHOUT Will Anderson occupying blockers on the other edge. The Browns have placed three different tackles on injured reserve this season, and there’s a good chance that Greenard is lined up over Browns left tackle Geron Christian, who was on the Texans’ practice squad just several weeks ago. Right now, the only players with more sacks in a season than Greenard are J.J. Watt (four season with 16 or more) and Mario Willaims (one 14 sack season). Greenard could catch Mario this weekend.
1. Myles Garrett is a major issue
Speaking of sacks, the biggest game wrecker on the Browns, and maybe in the league in 2023, is defensive end Myles Garrett, who has 14 sacks on the season, and is coming off a game last week against Chicago where he pressured their QB, Justin Fields, 11 times. If you’re wondering what fans of opposing teams felt like when J.J. Watt was coming to town, it’s probably how we all feel with Garrett coming to NRG Stadium. The Texans have to keep Garrett from singlehandedly winning this game with a couple forced turnovers, because I think the Texans defense will do their job against Flacco and company.
SPREAD: Texans +2.5
PREDICTION: Texans 20, Browns 17
SEASON RECORD: 5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast, on Instagram at instagram.com/sean.pendergast, and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
