The numbers are out for the 2025 MLB season, and if you’ve been a Houston Astros fan for the last eight years or so, they are somewhat harrowing. For the first time in many years, the Astros are thought to be, at the very least, in a dogfight for the AL West title. Some outlets have them as an underdog. Las Vegas sports books have their season win total at 86.5, the lowest going into a season since 2016.
In short, this is not your older brother’s Astros team. They can’t go on cruise control at all during the season. They will likely have to fight, scratch, and claw for everything they get. Getting back to the 95 to 100 win mark feels like a remote possibility, becoming more realistic only if they get some unexpected boosts from various players.
That brings us to the purpose of this article — identifying what unexpected, if not unlikely, occurrences that could vault the Astros to a comfortable division crown and favorite status to make the World Series out of the American League. Here they are:
Return of 2021 Lance McCullers
There may be no player in the Astros’ organization for whom the mere mention of his name draws more ire than McCullers, whose only real sin is an inability to stay healthy. Lance is not a bad person. In fact, he’s a great dude and a proud Houstonian. However, he’s also a pitcher who’s been paid over $50 million the last three years to pitch 47 innings in 2022. McCullers has missed the entirety of 2023 and 2024 rehabbing arm injuries. In 2021, McCullers’ best season, he was 13-5 with a 2.26 ERA in 28 starts. All signs point to McCullers returning, finally, in late April. When he pitches, he is very good. If McCullers is finally healthy for a full season, that’s a huge boost that nobody is counting on.
Return of 2023 Chas McCormick
McCormick was a huge x-factor for the 2022 World Series championship team, with his circus catch in the ninth inning of Game 5 being a moment that should get him free drinks for life in Houston. McCormick followed that up with a 22 home run, 70 RBI, .842 OPS season in 2023. In 2024, injuries and underperformance ruined McCormick, who played in just 94 games, and had a -0.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Chas is just a year removed from being a very good outfielder, and the Astros’ outfield is currently viewed as weak.
Finally, MVP level Yordan Alvarez shows up
Yordan Alvarez is unquestionably one of the best hitters in the sport. He has a career OPS of .973, and any list of accomplishments for “hitters at age 27 or below” in the sport’s history usually has Alvarez alongside names like Mantle, Gehrig, Ruth, and Bonds, and the like. However, because of a series of nagging injuries, he’s never had an MVP season. The closest he’s come was in 2022, when he finished third in the balloting. Alvarez has averaged 135 games played over the last four seasons. If he can stay healthy for 150-plus games, bat cleanup to get his RBI numbers up, and stay consistent all season long, Alvarez can be in the mix for the MVP award, especially now that Shohei Ohtani is in the National League (where he won the MVP last season).
Jeremy Pena takes the next step
When the Astros watched Carlos Correa leave in free agency, there were a lot of question marks as to whether the team would get shortstop play that even approached what Correa had become during his run in Houston. At his peak, Correa was a top five MVP candidate, back in 2021. The following season, Correa was a Minnesota Twin, and Jeremy Pena was Correa’s replacement. Since then, weak Jeremy Pena came along in the 2022 postseason, with his MVP performances in the ALCS and World Series. In the regular season, Pena has been solid, but not spectacular, a Gold Glove in 2022 being his most noteworthy accomplishment. We know he can hit with power (22 home runs in his rookie season), we know he can steal bases (his total has increased each season, and his defense is elite). Pena putting all three facets together in a 25-home-run-25 stolen base-Gold-Glove type season would be massive, especially having him under team control for three more seasons.
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