I recall a time, around midway through the 2025 NFL season, when the Indianapolis Colts were the consensus best team in football, sitting there with a 7-1 record. At the same time, the Houston Texans were a major disappointment, at 3-5. There was even a thought that Texan fans should be rooting for the Colts to keep winning so this Week 18 game at NRG Stadium would have the Colts resting their starters, thus making it an easier endeavor for the Texans.
Well, as Michael Scott would say “My, how the turntables!” Fast forward eight weeks, and look at the landscape now — the Texans are 11-5, and fighting for a division crown, while the Colts have gone in the toilet, and are now 8-8. Hell, there’s even talk of the TEXANS resting their starters in this game, and getting ready for the postseason.
The moral of the story is that the NFL is still the best episodic content on television, where anything can happen. In fact, the Texans are counting on the “anything can happen” mantra being reality on Sunday, where they need some unlikely help to win their third straight division crown. So let’s start there, with what to watch for this Sunday afternoon:
4. Scoreboard watching
DeMeco Ryans himself (finally) admitted it on his coaches show this past Monday, that the Texans will indeed need to keep an eye on the out of town scoreboard, and hoping for the improving-but-still-bad Tennessee Titans to pull off the upset and beat the 12-4 Jaguars in Jacksonville. If the teams Romero’s known as the Oilers can pull that off, and the Texans take care of business against the Colts, then DeMeco Ryans is the first coach in Texans history to win three consecutive division title.
3. Murder the rookie
The Texans are a 10.5 point favorite in this game, a game where two months ago, they probably would have been a small underdog. However, along the way, Colts QB Daniel Jones shredded his Achilles tendon, which gave us a fever dream three game stretch with unretired, 44 year old Philip Rivers, and now yields us rookie Riley Leonard, who is wholly and totally unequipped to deal with this Texans defense. Someone check this poor kid’s life insurance, and make sure it’s up to date.
2. Protecting playoff health
On the flip side, for the Texans, while the priority is still winning, given the mathematical chance at a division title, equal priority should be the health of the team, knowing there is a wild card round game coming next week. If the opportunity presents itself to get guys like Kamari Lassiter, Azeez Al-Shaair, and Derek Stingley some rest, then Ryans needs to be mindful of that. Also, getting C.J. Stroud out of harm’s way by the third quarter would be a nice development, as well.
1. No offensive lulls
So long as the starters are going to start and play this game, then it would be nice for the offense to go into the postseason with some momentum. While that side of the ball is improved over last season, particularly along the offensive line, they still experience far too many multi-quarter lulls, where 3-and-out series are the norm, to expect a deep playoff run. The red zone offense has improved, but now they need to actually get into the red zone on a more consistent basis.
SPREAD: Texans -10.5
PREDICTION: Texans 33, Colts 6
SEASON RECORD: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS
This article appears in Private: Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2026.