The Houston Texans have already endured a 34-7 loss to an undefeated Minnesota Vikings squad three weeks ago. Also, two weeks ago, they faced one of the MVP front runners and perennially very good squads in the Buffalo Bills, winning on a last second field goal. I acknowledge both of these teams as a preface to this — the Green Bay Packers on Sunday are the toughest test for the Texans so far this season.
The game is in Lambeau Field, and as crazy as this feels, it’s only the third time the Texans have traveled to Lambeau win the regular season. In 2008, they secured their only win in franchise history over Green Bay, in Aaron Rodgers’ first season as Packers starter. In 2016, the Texans lost to the Packers in a game where QB Brock Osweiler uttered the infamous “every interception has its own story” line in the post game press conference.
This is now the Jordan Love-led Packers, and they do almost everything pretty well. The Texans are three point underdogs in this game, and there should be a lot of points scored. CBS is giving us the Jim Nantz/Tony Romo duo on the call, so this is an A-list game. Let’s give you a few things to watch for on Sunday:
4. The return of Autry
Unfortunately, the Texans took a hit to their defensive line depth this week, when defensive tackle Mario Edwards was dealt a four game suspension for failing a drug test. Edwards had been one of the more pleasant surprises this season. Fortunately, Denico Autry returns from his six game suspension for failing a PED test, and if we are measuring potential impact, Autry’s addition should outweigh the loss of Edwards. Autry had 11.5 sacks last season for the Titans, and has been called a “junkyard dog and bad MFer” by GM Nick Caserio on my radio show. Autry should juice up an already potent pass rush, when he bumps from end to tackle on this downs. This is a major addition for the Texans.
3. Was last week real on the ground?
Based on sheer yardage (192 yards rushing) and yards per carry (nearly seven per carry), last week in New England was a major success for the Texans. However, 113 of those yards were generated on two big runs by Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce. While it was glorious to see Pierce running like he did two seasons ago in his breakout rookie campaign, the Texans DID average under three yards per carry on the rest of their carries, outside of the two big runs by Mixon and Pierce. The run game needs to be more consistent play to play, to help set up play action, and to help the Texans close out this game if they have a lead in the fourth quarter. On the road, you have to be able to run the ball.
2. Injuries on D
The biggest concern for the Texans defensively in this game is probably the injury report. Both of their starting linebackers, Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’o To’o are on the injury report this week with knee and concussion issues, respectively. The Texans will also be missing half of their starting secondary, with rookie CB Kamari Lassiter and veteran safety Jimmie Ward out with shoulder and groin injuries, respectively. Unlike the last two Texans opponents, the Bills and Patriots, the Packers have very potent skill guys in the passing game, a deep receiving corps, three capable tight ends, and a true lead running back in Josh Jacobs. This is a bad game to be down both starting linebackers (if indeed they miss the game) and half your secondary (and that is confirmed, Lassiter and Ward are out).
1. Protect the football
The Packers do a lot of things well, but one thing they’ve done this season better than every other team in football — turn over opposing offenses. The Packers have forced 17 turnovers and have a plus-8 turnover differential. Xavier McKinney, a huge free agency signing for the Packers, has led the way with an interception in every game, except last week’s win over Arizona. C.J. Stroud has been admittedly “sloppy” (by his lofty standards) with the protecting the football this season, with four interceptions and a lost fumble. The Texans could get away with losing the turnover battle against Buffalo two weeks ago. That will not be the case on Sunday.
SPREAD: Texans +3
PREDICTION: Packers 31, Texans 27
SEASON RECORD: 4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast, on Instagram at instagram.com/sean.pendergast, and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
