As the peak of hurricane season begins, previous forecasts had indicated the possibility of less activity in the tropics. However, now meteorologists are predicting the chance for more storms due to recently reported record-breaking water temperatures.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center now indicates a 60 percent chance for an above average season, only a 15 percent chance for a below average season, and a 25 percent chance for a near-average season.
Matt Lanza, meteorologist at Space City Weather, said El Niño – a recurring climate pattern that warms water in the Pacific Ocean – may have a shift to its typical atmospheric response as there is less of a difference between water temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
“You really can’t have record high water temperatures in the Atlantic without something happening that isn’t normal,” Lanza said. “It’s either going to stay quiet because of El Niño, or El Niño is not going to do what we expect it to do over the next couple of months, and all hell will break loose.”
According to Lanza, El Niño tends to bring in stronger wind shears – the variety in wind speed and direction the higher up in the atmosphere – which creates conditions that curb hurricane development and growth.
However, these stronger wind shears haven’t been detected much this summer, as the climate pattern developed slightly slower than expected. Although they are seen now and expected to be present moving forward, the increase in temperatures across the Atlantic may still create the possibility for more named storms.
“This year is taking what we’ve seen the last few years and just bringing it up to another level,” Lanza said. “At least when we’ve had the capability of monitoring water temperatures on such a large scale – we’ve never seen water this warm.”
Last week, according to reports, the Gulf of Mexico’s average sea surface temperatures rose above 87 degrees, the hottest they’ve been at any point in any year on record by a wide margin.
Climate change and less dust blowing off the Saharan Desert in Africa in June play a role in these rising temperatures. There is also an indication that changes in sulfur regulation with shipping in the Atlantic may also affect the warmth as the emissions artificially cooled the water, he said.
It is difficult to know which way the pendulum will swing; however, according to Lanza, a couple of tropical waves in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean may serve as tests for potential development later this week into early next week.
“If we see these waves struggle a bit, that will tell me that I think the chances of an active season verifying will probably be low,” he said. “Because if they are struggling, and we’re at the peak of the season when you expect to see some things blow up – then that tells me there’s more at play than warm water temperatures that will create some hurdles.”
Additionally, Lanza said during some of the quietest hurricane seasons, the strongest storms can emerge, such as Hurricane Alicia, one of the most damaging storms in Houston’s history.
He suggests that residents always be prepared for what may come by keeping an emergency preparedness kit and having an evacuation plan that factors in any household pets, as leaving can be stressful amid a natural disaster.
Additionally, a part of this plan should include preparing any documents you may need if you cannot return to your house and want to start handling repairs and insurance claims.
“What we want people to do is just be prepared as if it is going to be the season that brings you a storm because the reality is even if it is a calm hurricane season overall, that doesn’t mean that that’s a non-hurricane season,” Lanza said. “There can still be fewer storms, and one could impact you.”
The peak of hurricane season runs from mid-August to early October, with the overall season coming to an end in late November.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
