Before the season started, I predicted the Houston Texans would finish the season with an 11-6 record, a one game improvement over their surprising finish in 2023. It was actually among the more optimistic projections for the Texans, as their schedule in 2024 was thought to represent a major step up in weight class from the 2023 slate.
In terms of dividing up the season into chunks, I saw the first eight game as the most manageable part of the Texans’ schedule, and projected them to go 6-2 in those eight games. At 5-1 thus far this season, they are a split among the upcoming two games against the Packers and Colts from arriving at 6-2. My hope is, obviously, that I am wrong, and they start the season at 7-1. That would be cool!
A big reason the Texans’ 2024 schedule looks so much harder on paper than last season’s schedule was due to the caliber of quarterbacks they’re facing in 2024. Last season, there was a big drop off after Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow on the opposing quarterback agenda. This season, they face multiple Pro Bowl quarterbacks.
However, with injuries and the whimsy of the football gods, things can change in the NFL, and undoubtedly, with a few of the Texans’ future opponents, things have changed, some to the good and some to the bad. So a third of the way through the season, let’s reassess the difficulty of the remaining 11 games on the Texans schedule (knowing full well that future injuries cannot be predicted nor projected).
WEEK 7: at Packers
SPREAD before Season: Texans +2.5
DIFFICULTY REASSESSMENT: SAME
Not much to see here. The Texans opened the week as a three point underdog to the Packers, and in some shops it’s down to the 2.5 point spread that was projected back in May.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Texans LOSE
WEEK 8: vs Colts
SPREAD before Season: Texans -4
DIFFICULTY REASSESSMENT: EASIER
The Colts’ game is a tough one to put a finger on right now, because we don’t know if Joe Flacco or Anthony Richardson will start. Richardson was healthy again this week, but like last year with the Browns, Flacco is finding the fountain of youth as a substitute starter again.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Texans WIN
WEEK 9: at Jets (TNF)
SPREAD before Season: Texans +3
DIFFICULTY REASSESSMENT: EASIER
The Jets are a mess. Aaron Rodgers looks washed, and they just fired their head coach last week. Traveling to New York on a short week is still a concern, but the Texans are the better team.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Texans WIN
WEEK 10: vs Lions (SNF)
SPREAD before Season: Texans -1
DIFFICCULTY REASSESSMENT: SAME
The Lions are one of the most well oiled machines in football, just ask the Cowboys who lost at home to them by a score of 47-9 on Sunday. Losing Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Aidan Hutchinson to a broken leg hurts, but this Lions’ offense is a machine.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Texans LOSE
WEEK 11: at Cowboys (MNF)
SPREAD before Season: Texans +3
DIFFICULTY REASSESSMENT: EASIER
Like I said, the Cowboys just lost to the Lions 47-9. They’ve played three home games, and have been run out of the building in all three.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Texans WIN
WEEK 12: vs Titans
SPREAD before Season: Texans -6
DIFFICULTY REASSESSMENT: SAME
I thought the Titans were in the bottom quartile of NFL teams before the season, and I think that now, too. The big variable is at quarterback, where their backup, Mason Rudolph, might give them a better chance to win than careless starter, Will Levis.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Texans WIN
WEEK 13: at Jaguars
SPREAD before Season: Texans +1
DIFFICULTY REASSESSMENT: EASIER
The Jaguars are brutal, and I’d be surprised if they, like the Jets, haven’t fired their coach by the time they play the Texans. The Texans haven’t lost in Jacksonville since 2017, and that includes games coached by Romeo Crennel, David Culley and Lovie Smith.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Texans WIN
WEEK 14: BYE
WEEK 15: vs Dolphins
SPREAD before Season: Texans -2.5
DIFFICULTY REASSESSMENT: EASIER
The Dolphins lost Tua Tagolvailoa to a concussion in Week 2, and who knows if he’s coming back this season. They’ve been a disaster since losing him. Even if he does come back, this Dolphins team might be cooked by Week 15.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Texans WIN
WEEK 16: at Chiefs
SPREAD before Season: Texans +4.5
DIFFICULTY REASSESSMENT: SAME
The Chiefs are the only undefeated team remaining in the AFC. They have a dominant record, but they haven’t looked dominant. They just know how to win.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Texans LOSE
WEEK 17: vs Ravens (Christmas Day)
SPREAD before Season: Texans +1.5
DIFFICULTY REASSESSMENT: SAME
The Ravens started 0-2, but they’ve figured it out, predictably so, and they appear to be one of the three best teams in the AFC again. The Ravens traveling here for Christmas Day is a bit of an equalizer, but until I see the Texans beat the Ravens with Lamar Jackson, I cannot pick them to do so.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Texans LOSE
WEEK 18: at Titans
SPREAD before Season: Texans -3
DIFFICULTY REASSESSMENT: SAME
See above assessment of the Titans as a future opponent.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Texans WIN
By my count, that is a final record of 12-5, so my optimism level has seen an uptick! One thing I’m 100 percent sure of — the football gods will not allow these steadfast positive vibes to last.
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast, on Instagram at instagram.com/sean.pendergast, and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
