Undoubtedly, last Sunday’s 24-21 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars was a missed opportunity for the Houston Texans. Win that game, and you’re in first place heading into December. Now, the Texans are 6-5, entrenched as the eight seed in a conference with seven playoff spots, and now, here come the Denver Broncos, also 6-5 and seeded ninth. This is another huge game on Sunday at NRG Stadium.
Earlier this season, when the Broncos were floundering at 1-5, this game looked like a layup, a week off in a tough stretch of games that included the Jaguars and a late season divisional gauntlet with two games against the Titans and a trip to Indy, However, with five wins in a row, the Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the league, with Sean Payton pushing the buttons and Russell Wilson turning “game managing’ into a super hero power.
The winner of this game makes a big push for a playoff spot. the loser has a thin margin for error the rest of the way. Let’s look at four things to watch for:
4. Sean Payton, disrespectful coaching candidate
If you’re looking to conjure up some vitriol for this matchup, one good way to do it is to go back and research the coaching carousel from this past offseason, the one that led to DeMeco Ryans coming here and Sean Payton winding up in Denver. Early on in the cycle, Payton interviewed with the Texans over Zoom, and apparently was very put off that they wouldn’t come visit him in person, according to reports. Subsequently, Payton fed his media buddy, Colin Cowherd, all sorts of negative observations about the Texans’ ownership and franchise, observations Cowherd was giddy to share with his national audience. Screw, Sean Payton! (And start by screwing him on Sunday!)
3. Offensive line shuffle (again)
The big news out of the Texans this past week was the loss of right-tackle-turned-left-guard Tytus Howard for the remainder of the season with a patellar tendon injury that will require surgery. It had been a rough season for Howard, who broke his hand in training camp just days after signing a lucrative ($18 million per year) contract extension. With Howard now out, and rookie Juice Scruggs in, this will be the sixth different permutation of players the Texans will start this season on the offensive line. This is no way to try to get a running game working, nor protect your rookie stud quarterback.
2. Russell Wilson, supreme game manager
When Payton was hired, his biggest undertaking was (and has been) somehow rehabilitating Wilson’s career. Wilson was awful in his first season in Denver in 2022, winning just four games and showing a ridiculously low level of self awareness as to just how badly he was playing. This season, it’s been better. Wilson is not tearing the league up, by any means, but he does have 20 touchdown passes, and during this Broncos’ five game winning streak, he’s done a good job protecting the football and managing games. Wilson has four fourth quarter comebacks this season, which means he will be perfectly comfortable playing in the style of game the Texans have become accustomed to — a thriller decided in the last 30 seconds, which describes every Texans game since Week 4.
1. Much more careful version of C.J.
For the second consecutive week, the Texans face the team that is leading the NFL in takeaways. last week, the Jaguars came in having generated 20 turnovers on defense. Fortunately, C.J. Stroud was able to keep the turnover sheet clean, with no picks and no fumbles. As a result, the Broncos slipped past the Jags at the top of the turnover generation board. The Broncos have caused 22 turnovers. The Broncos are so limited offensively, and so poor defending the run, that I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where the Texans lose of they don’t turn the ball over.
SPREAD: Texans -4
PREDICTION: Texans 24, Broncos 16
SEASON RECORD: SU 4-7, ATS 5-6
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
