Perhaps no team in the NBA is more well positioned than the Rockets to make a big trade if they wanted to do so. They are loaded with young talent, expiring contracts and draft picks (and swaps). The question is, should they?
Every indication from the team and GM Rafael Stone is that they intend to be patient with this young core of talent. They have invested a lot of time, money and draft capital into a significant portion of their core group, and they appear to be headed for the postseason in just their second year under coach Ime Udoka. It seems like they have every reason to stand pat.
But, winning is difficult and often short lived. If they think they have a chance to compete at a championship level right now, the time might never be better to make a franchise-altering move. Let’s discuss.
Reason to Trade: They are stocked with assets.
There might be no one in the NBA in a better spot for making a deal. They have a number of young talented players including Jalen Green and Cam Whitmore, both of whom are certainly wanted commodities. They also have a boatload of future draft picks as well as expiring contracts for several veteran players like Jock Landale and Jeff Green. If there was ever a time to make a blockbuster deal, all the elements are in place. And, moreover, it would be unlikely to hurt their future prospects given the depth of their overall talent.
Reason Not to Trade: They don’t completely know what they have yet.
Even at three years in, these are very young players. Many have not yet come close to scratching the surface of their talent. The last thing the team wants to do is invest years of hard work into a player only to see him blossom for someone else. Green and Whitmore are the most talked about, yet possibly the two with the most complicated forecasts. It might be worth waiting, at least until the offseason, to find out exactly what they have.
Reason to Trade: There are big names potentially on the market.
Despite all the talent, there is no one clear cut superstar currently on the roster. But, there are some names like Jimmy Butler, who could turn a team of kinda-knowns into his franchise. Butler is probably not a great example given his age and desire to be a free agent after this season, but might the Suns, in the midst of serious swoon, consider moving Devin Booker, a player the Rockets have targeted for a while? And are there other name out there we haven’t even considered?
Reason Not to Trade: Even with a move, they probably aren’t quite good enough to compete for a title this year.
Even if the Rockets did snag a star player at the trade deadline, they are still probably at least a year away from contention. Youth is like that. With so many players younger than most college graduates, it takes time for them to mature to the point of being ready for such a challenge. This team still doesn’t have ANY playoff seasoning. Next year, we might be able to argue for it, but not sure this year it is reasonable.
Reason to Trade: They could improve their biggest weakness: shooting.
If there is any reason to make a deal, it is to improve on the one thing they struggle with the most. This is one of if not the best defensive team in the NBA. They also are ranked in the top 10 in Offensive Rating thanks to their rebounding, pace and lack of turnovers. But they are in the bottom five in shooting, both in total field goal percentage and from distance. That essentially caps their ceiling. They might be able to make a minor move that wouldn’t upset the chemistry of the team and bring in a sharpshooter, but is it worth it? Maybe. Is it enough to improve significantly? Unlikely.
Reason Not to Trade: They are probably better off waiting for the summer.
Move this conversation ahead by six or seven months and it is a completely different discussion. By the end of this season, this is a team that will have two full seasons together with roughly the same roster. Whatever changes they need to make should be apparent by then and it will give Stone and company time to make the best moves possible for the team. Rushing into it in a season where you are unlikely to see dramatic improvement regardless of the move doesn’t make a lot of sense, and Stone has proven to be someone who isn’t rushed easily.
