The Houston Rockets are currently 37-22 putting them 4th in the Western Conference. It’s a long way from the past few years of misery and farther along than most prognosticators imagined. But, this team has designs on a playoff run beyond just the first round. To do that, they have to find their way through a closing schedule that pits them against some of the best in the NBA…and some of the worst.
Current Record: 37-22
Position in Conference: 4th
Combined Winning Percentage of Remaining Teams on Schedule: .452
Games Remaining: 23
Road Games Remaining: 11
Back-to-Back Games Remaining: 3
Best Teams Remaining: Thunder, Nuggets, Lakers, Pacers
The Rockets are 4-2 against these four teams with both losses coming against the Thunder, one the first week of the season and the other during the NBA Cup semifinal. In fact, the Rockets have been pretty good against very good teams this season. They will need to be given they face the Nuggets and Lakers twice in the final 23 games. Both Denver and LA are rolling post the trade deadline.
Worst Teams Remaining: Jazz, Pelicans, 76ers
On the other hand, the Rockets have only been average against bad teams this season. They just lost in Utah a week ago. But, they have handled the Pelicans both times they have played this season and the 76ers are in full tank mode.
Toughest Stretch: The Final Five
In the last 10 days of the season, the Rockets face the Thunder and Nuggets and home with the Lakers, Warriors and Clippers on the road. Not exactly an easy end to the season, but it should be a great precursor to the postseason.
Biggest Key to Success: Health
Without question, the ability to keep everyone on the floor is critical to the team’s success. When they have been fully healthy, this has been a very good team. But, without certain players, the offense, in particular, has struggled.
Most Important Player: Fred VanVleet
On the floor, FVV is essentially a coach getting guys in the right spots. He can go off on certain nights offensively, but his true value is in how he manages the game for Coach Ime Udoka. Without him, the Rockets have been essentially a .500 team. Regardless of his stat line, VanVleet makes the Rockets go.
Critical Stat: Offensive Efficiency
When the Rockets score efficiently, they are extremely difficult to beat. Their ups and downs all season have come with how they have performed offensively. Long shooting droughts have cost them games and nights when they are on have seen them in blowouts against good team. More consistency offensively is not just the key to winning down the stretch but in the playoffs.
Biggest Wildcard: Focus Against Bad Teams
At times, this is a team that has struggled to stay up for bad teams. That cannot happen as they make a push for the postseason. Now that the Nuggets have righted the ship, the Lakers have Luka Docic, and the Grizzlies and Thunder continue to win, it will take every win they can muster to land a top six spot in the Western Conference.
Final Record Prediction: 53-29
Getting 16 wins over the next 23 would be a big accomplishment and likely keep them in the top four in the West. This is a team that is talented enough to do it. This would also constitute a huge 12-game improvement over last season.
