When Super Bowl time comes around, unless your hometown team is playing in the game, then there are really two things the average fan is hoping to see — two dominant teams, and two evenly matched teams. That is exactly what we are getting this Sunday in Super Bowl LVII in Phoenix, as the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Kansas City Chiefs.
These two teams are exactly what I outlined about, dominant and evenly matched, and I’ll allow ESPN’s Field Yates to back it up with some numbers. Here is the dominant:
And here is the evenly matched:
The eagles are 1.5 point favorites, and given how identical the numbers are, even that minuscule spread still feels like two much. This game, on paper, feels as “pick em” as pick em” gets. I do think there are some key storylines that are either going to be fun to watch or crucial to the outcome of the game, or both! Here are four things to watch for, as you prepare for the big day on Sunday:
4. All the “dead horse beaten” storylines
This game is chock full of “add water and microwave” storylines, most of which you’ve likely been bludgeoned with all week. If you haven’t gotten fired of these yet, then prepare for storyline fatigue come Sunday on these angles — Andy Reid going against the team that fired him in 2012, Nick Sirianni going against the coach that replaced him with David Culley in Kansas City, the first Super bowl with two Texas quarterbacks, the first Super Bowl with two black quarterbacks, and finally THE KELCE BROTHERS! One for each team! Drinka time any of these are mentioned on Sunday, and you’ll require a stomach pump by the time Beyonce takes the stage at halftime.
3. The head coaches
These are two very different head coaches, in terms of experience and in terms of what fuels their success. Chefs head coach Andy Reid is in his 24th season of head coaching at the NFL level. Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni is in just his second season in the big seat. Reid is largely viewed as unstoppable with extra time to prepare, but kind of shaky in game. Sirianni runs a super smooth in game operation. To wit, the Eagles didn’t have a delay of game penalty due to a call coming in late all season long. That’s crazy, especially when you consider THIS was Sirianni’s introductory press conference two years ago:
2. Mahomes GOAT chase
Each team has a distinct strength, and how much you believe in that particular strength will dictate which side you choose. If you’re choosing the Chiefs, it’s probably because Patrick Mahomes is in the express lane to Canton, having been to five straight AFC title games and three Super Bowls since 2018. Want some more numbers to back that up? Glad you asked! Mahomes has started 93 games in his career – he’s been in the lead or within a score in the 4th quarter in 90 of those games. In 2022, Mahomes was first in Estimated Points Added against zone defense, man to man coverage, versus the blitz, and versus no blitz. In other words, regardless of how a defense plays him, Mahomes shreds it.
1. Eagles in the trenches
The Eagles’ counter to this is their superiority in the trenches on both sides of the football. ON offense, the Eagles had the best rushing DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric) this season, and the difference between them and the second best team was the same as the difference between the second and NINTH place teams. On defense, the Eagles led the league in sacks in 2022 by a wide margin. They had four players in double digit sack numbers. Their sack rate of 11.5 percent of opposing pass plays was the highest fo any team since the year 2000, and the difference between the Eagles sack rate and the second place team (New England) is the same as the difference between second place and 29th place (Bengals)! THAT is dominance!
PREDICTION: Philadelphia 30, Kansas City 23
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
