After a close race that saw incumbent U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Colin Allred neck and neck in the weeks before the election, on Tuesday Texas voters once again opted for Cruz. The junior senator won by 54 percent to Allred’s 44 percent.
In typical Cruz fashion, he declared himself the victor and came out to give his victory speech well before the Associated Press or anyone else had actually called the race in his favor. (In his defense, he only announced he was going to do so when more than 70 percent of the vote had been reported.)
“Cruz skated by on statewide trends that give the Republicans an edge and have given the Republicans an edge for the past 30 years,” Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said. “Cruz is a marked man politically, but the conditions in the state were enough to give him another six years.”
Despite Cruz’s infamous ill-timed jaunt to Cancun – mid-historic February ice storm in 2021 – and the photo of him in the airport that he’ll never live down, and his own well known congressional unpopularity, Cruz’s lockstep MAGA stance has protected him this time around.
The race started narrowing in the polls in the final months leading up to the election. Allred ran a campaign that seemed to have learned from the mistakes of Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 bid. Although O’Rourke had talent and charm that made his dark horse run into a national sensation, he also ended up running a national campaign instead of a Texas-focused bid that might have peeled off enough votes to take him over the top.
This time around Allred didn’t make that mistake. He campaigned talking about border security, economic needs and housing costs while promising that he would reach across the aisle if elected. He also spoke passionately about the fallout from the state’s draconian six-week abortion ban. In other words, he kept his eye on the issues that have traction in the Lone Star State.
Allred also outperformed Democratic expectations. In last month’s debate, the sole debate these two held, Allred held his own against Cruz’s much-vaunted debating prowess. His showing was so good that we saw Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign roll into Houston, Rottinghaus said.
“Allred came out of the debate looking like he could handle the issues and really take on Cruz,” Rottinghaus said. “His performance accelerated the national interest in this race, and he needed that right then. I don’t think Harris visits Houston a month later if he doesn’t perform well in that debate.”
It wasn’t quite enough, but the race still may have provided Dems with some insight into how they might eventually win a statewide race for the first time in decades. “I think the approach Allred took was much more effective,” Rottinghaus said. “No one knows what it will take for the Democrats to win in Texas, what the secret sauce is, but even though he lost he did well enough that maybe this approach is it.”
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
