Texans-Cowboys: Five Things To Watch (Actual Football Analysis)

​The Texans are 60 minutes from reaching their highest point in franchise
history.

For a team with as short a history as the Texans, it’s easy to be overly
dramatic and lose perspective. Yet on this particular Sunday, the game truly is
that important.

A win over the hated Cowboys sends the Texans to their first 3-0
start in club history. It would cap a three-week lineup of murderer’s row at QB
— Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo — and allow the Texans to survive
unblemished, all without their best defensive player (Brian Cushing).

It would put the Texans on a clear path to 4-0, with hapless Oakland
looming the next Sunday. It would place them on the NFL map as a legitimate
Super Bowl contender.

Also, in the grand scheme of things, it might be equally important that a
win simultaneously drops the Cowboys to 0-3.

The Texans have fought a losing
battle to the Cowboys for market share since their inception, with Dallas’
return to national relevancy in recent years mirroring a series of
underachieving seasons here in Houston. Casual, or bandwagon, fans are annoying,
sure — but they do help in building a brand. More than ever before, the Texans
have an opportunity on Sunday to truly be considered legitimate, and carry the
torch as the premier football team in the state of Texas.

But for all that to happen, the Texans must continue their recent success
and beat the Cowboys in the noon matchup at Reliant Stadium, just as they did in
week 3 of the preseason on August 28. Here’s a look at five tipping points that
could determine the outcome.

1) Can the Texans run the ball effectively without
Duane Brown?
With Brown suspended four games, much will be made about
the potential for Demarcus Ware to bull-rush backup left tackle Rashad Butler in
passing situations. But the reality was always that Ware would be doubled in
many obvious passing downs.

The key will come on early downs and with the run game, when Butler will be
one-on-one with Ware. Can the backup open up holes for Arian Foster, and give
the Texans the balance they need to run play-action and keep the Dallas offense
off the field? The Texans are 6-0 in games in which Foster has played, based
largely on the balance a capable running game gives them.

2) Can the secondary cause (and hold on) to a
turnover?
Lost amid the struggles of the Houston pass defense have been
two potentially crucial fourth-quarter interceptions that were dropped. The
Texans might have held the Colts to 10 points in week 1, if Glover Quin had
secured an easy pick from Peyton Manning. Likewise, Eugene Wilson dropped a ball
thrown right into his hands by Donovan McNabb in week 2.

​The Texan secondary is young and will give up yards, but Gary Kubiak and
defensive coordinator Frank Bush have them well coached and in positions to make
plays. On the other side of the ball, Cowboys QB Tony Romo has shown a tendency
throughout his career to take risks. Houston defenders can cause turnovers, but
whether they hold on will go a long way toward determining their fate.

3) Will the Amobi Okoye of August 28 be in the
building?
Just as the Houston offensive line will double-team Ware, the
Dallas line will double Mario Williams from time to time, and it will be up to
someone else to create pressure on Romo. In the teams’ earlier meeting, Okoye
delivered on that opportunity. The fourth-year Texan defensive tackle routinely
collapsed the Dallas pocket, and denied Romo the time to allow downfield routes
to develop.

Okoye looked excellent against the Colts, but he was limited by an ankle
injury in the Washington game. His being healthy and having a repeat performance
from August would go a long way toward helping the much-maligned Houston
secondary.

4) Can Steve Slaton’s kick returns please not
suck?
Slaton averaged under 15 yards per kick return against
Washington, including a truly horrific return in which he went out of bounds at
the Houston 1-yard line. Even when he didn’t sprint out of bounds, he showed a
tendency to run into traffic.

It’s well-documented that Slaton has not previously served as a return man
in the NFL, so perhaps last week represented his growing pains. But the Texans
offense can’t afford to consistently be at a 10-yard plus disadvantage on
kickoffs, in terms of field position, relative to most teams.

5) Has Owen Daniels’ return helped the Texans’ red-zone
woes?
The Texans thrashed Dallas 23-7 in the earlier meeting, but one
nitpick would be their settling for three field goals within the Cowboys’
10-yard line. Red-zone struggles were a theme from last regular season, but they
largely haven’t translated to this regular season, in which the Texans lead the
NFL in scoring.

One difference is the return of Daniels, who missed the preseason game
while rehabbing his knee injury. While Daniels hasn’t been a big factor in the
passing game, the return of Houston’s tight end in the red zone has forced other
teams to take him seriously as a receiving threat. He’s also a very good
blocker, so the Texans aren’t forced to tip their hand on run/pass based on what
tight end they have in the game. Daniels is due for a breakout receiving game
and has yet to score a touchdown. He could be due.

Prediction: Texans 31, Cowboys 20

This article appears in Sep 23-29, 2010.