Two huge wins for the Houston Texans in the last two weeks, a 20 point thumping of Jacksonville and a 24 point thrashing of the Steelers, have completely changed the trajectory of the 2023 season. Whereas expectations even two weeks INTO this season were some form of “same ol’ Texans,” the last two weeks, along with the reality that the schedule is not that hard, have people in Houston cautiously using the P word — playoffs.
For some context, each Tuesday morning on my SportsRadio 610 morning show, Seth Payne and I blend the five major NFL Power Rankings into one big power ranking, with all teams stacked 1 through 32. For the last two years, the Texans have spent all their time somewhere between 30th and 32nd. It’s sucked. However, after Sunday’s 30-6 win over the Steelers, the Texans now have an average ranking of 16.2.
Yes! They are basically in the upper half (barely, but still) of the entire NFL! This is major progress! Furthermore, here is the average ranking of the Texans’ remaining opponents, where the line divides those above and below the Texans’ 16.2 ranking:
TB: 10.4
JAC: 13.2
CLV: 14.0
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NOLA: 18.2
IND: 18.8
TEN: 19.0
ATL: 20.6
CIN: 21.8
NYJ: 24.6
ARZ: 25.6
DEN: 29.8
CAR: 30.8
This is even more good news! Translated, just three of the Texans’ remaining 13 opponents (NOTE: They play Tennessee twice.) are ranked ahead of the Texans, and all three of those games against those opponents are at NRG Stadium! It’s about to get fun. Let’s get to this weekend’s matchup with the Atlanta Falcons, who are ranked a paltry 22nd overall in my Blended Pendergast Rankings.
Here are four things to watch for:
4. Offensive line reinforcements
Somehow, C.J. Stroud has put together one of the best starts to a rookie season in the history of the NFL behind an offensive line ravaged by injury, to the point where the starters the last two weeks have been a combination of castoffs, sixth round picks, and Shaq Mason. Now, here comes Tytus Howard (hand injury) and here comes Laremy Tunsil (knee injury), the two highly paid tackles who should upgrade line play that wasn’t all that bad with the two of them out. This is a major development for the Texans.
3. Special teams reinforcement
Over the last few weeks, there is very little to quibble with about the Houston Texans. They have exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. However, one area of the team that has been highly deficient has been the punting. Cam Johnston, the incumbent punter, suffered a leg injury in training camp, and it’s been left to rookie Ty Zentner to clean up the mess. This just in — Zentner has been the worst janitor in the world, Four weeks in, Zentner is 27th in net punting average. Johnston is one of the bets punters in the sport. It’ll be nice to have him back.
2. Bijan against the world
Bijan Robinson has announced his presence in the NFL with authority, as he heads into Week 5 tied for third in rushing yards with 318 yards. He’s been fantastic for the Falcons. The problem for Robinson is that his offense is skippered by a subpar second year QB in Desmond Ridder, so if the Falcons are going to win this game, it will likely be Robinson as the catalyst. The Texans have been better against the run this season, but still not great. Their tackling has left something to be desired, and considering the many ways Falcons head coach Arthur Smith can use Robinson, he could be a problem for the Texans.
1. C.J. Stroud, keep it going
Three games in, Stroud was doing things that only certain rookies had ever done in NFL history. Four games in, he is now doing things that only certain HALL OF FAMERS have done in NFL history. If you’re looking to get a feel on what the national media feels about Stroud, take a look at this video from former NFL QB and ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky on NFL Live:
Right now, Stroud is the heavy favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, at odds of +125. Oddly enough, Robinson is second at +450. Let’s get it on!
PREDICTION: Texans 27, Falcons 17
SPREAD: Texans +2.5
SEASON RECORD: 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast, on Instagram at instagram.com/sean.pendergast, and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
