Yes, you read my first tweet, the one with the Andy Dufresne meme attached, correctly — I think the Texans, a team that was favored in exactly one game PERIOD over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, will be favored in all of their home games the rest of the way, and maybe a couple road games, who knows? For now, let's examine each of the six remaining home games.For further context, the #Texans were favored in exactly ONE home game in '21 & '22 COMBINED -- it was Wk 12 '21 v NYJ and rookie Zach Wilson (HOU lost outright)
— Sean Pendergast (@SeanTPendergast) October 16, 2023
On average, Texans have been a +8 dog at HOME the last 2 seasons. Those days are over. God bless, DeMeco Ryans.
I've included the betting line from back in May, right after the schedule was released, on each game, and I've included what I THINK the betting line will be when each game is played, provided C.J. Stroud is playing quarterback for the Texans. If he gets hurt, all bets are off. Here we go:
WEEK 9: vs Tampa Bay
PRESEASON LINE: Texans -1
PREDICTED LINE (as of 10/17/23): Texans -3
This is the next home game for the Texans. The Bucs got out to a 3-1 start, but got a bit of a wake up call this past weekend at home versus Detroit, and they have games against Atlanta and Buffalo the next two weeks. I could see both teams, the Bucs and Texans, being 4-3 heading into this game, in which case, the Texans get three points for home field advantage.
WEEK 11: vs Arizona
PRESEASON LINE: Texans -1.5
PREDICTED LINE (as of 10/17/23): Texans -7
Arizona has been more competitive than people thought they would be coming into the season. In the offseason, the 2023 Cardinals were pretty much treated like the 2021 Texans. They're now 1-5, and it's only going to get uglier. I'm tempted to make this more than a touchdown spread, but I'll pump the brakes a little.
WEEK 12: vs Jacksonville
PRESEASON LINE: Texans +4.5
PREDICTED LINE (as of 10/17/23): Texans -1.5
This is the one game that I paused to ponder about when making this prediction. The Jags are probably viewed as the more talented team, but the Texans have beaten them once already this season, by 20 points! So the Texans obviously feel perfectly comfortable in this game. The Texans get a slight edge thanks to home field advantage.
WEEK 13: vs Denver
PRESEASON LINE: Texans +4
PREDICTED LINE (as of 10/17/23): Texans -6.5
Sean Payton is phoning it in as the head coach, Russell Wilson is an awful quarterback, their defense stinks, and by the time this game is played, the Broncos might have traded off all their best pieces at the trade deadline. Again, I'm tempted to make this one a higher number.
WEEK 16: vs Cleveland
PRESEASON LINE: Texans +4
PREDICTED LINE (as of 10/17/23): Texans -3
The big question here is "Will Deshaun Watson play? How serious is his shoulder injury?" So that's two questions really. Actually, the big question is "Does Deshaun Watson even like playing football anymore?" The Browns have a VERY good defense, so even without Watson, the Texans will be facing one of their toughest challenges on that side of the ball all season.
WEEK 17: vs Tennessee
PRESEASON LINE: Texans +1
PREDICTED LINE (as of 10/17/23): Texans -7
I think we're finding out the Titans are just not very good. This game will be two weeks after the teams face off in Nashville. There's a good chance that the Titans are breaking in rookie QB Will Levis at this point, just to see what they have in him before the 2024 draft gets here.
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