The Fall Classic this year pits a pair of clubs that could not be more different. The Astros were a consistently good team that only seemed to get better as the season moved along with some of the most dominant pitching in team history, winning the AL West by 16 games. The Phillies survived the firing of their manager 50 games into the season and barely squeaked into the postseason as a Wild Card team, but caught fire in the last portion of the season which has continued into the playoffs.
Wait, does that sound familiar? If so, it’s because it is a strikingly similar scenario to the 2021 and 2019 when the Astros faced the Braves and Nationals, respectively, in the World Series, only to lose both times to NL East opponents with much worse records.
The Astros will at least have the benefit of hindsight this time around, but it will take more than that to beat the very hot and very talented Phillies who, despite their record, are a much better team than their regular season finish would indicate.
Get to the Phillies best pitchers…even a little.
We’ve heard plenty about the depth and talent of the Astros pitching staff this season and it’s all deserved. But, the Phils have a pair of starters in Game 1 starter Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler, who rival the Astros’ two starting arms, Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. Nola and Wheeler have the ability to dominate opposing hitters. Wheeler is sporting a 1.78 ERA in the postseason with a WHIP of .51 and a .118 batting average against.
But, if the Astros can get to either one of these guys even for a run, the window for a win gets blown open wide. The Phillies have a couple of solid arms in the bullpen with Seranthony Dominguez and hard throwing lefty Jose Alvarado, but they cannot compete with the insane depth of the Astros. Granted, Astros starters are going to have to be on their games as well and limit a powerful Phils lineup, but they have been doing that all year. Even a little could be enough for the Astros to beat the Phillies best.
It’s also worth noting that the drop off in pitching after Nola and Wheeler is precipitous. Getting through their aces is critical to a World Series win.
Avoid the big inning.
The Phillies thrive on the big inning often driven by the power hitters in their potent lineup. This is not a small ball team. When they win, they often do it in dramatic fashion and the long ball is a huge part of their success. The Astros are similar, but they do have the ability to play more station-to-station baseball. More importantly, Astros pitchers gave up fewer home runs than any team in the AL this year.
Additionally, while the Astros hitters strike out less and walk more than virtually any team in baseball, the Phillies are middle of the back in both. They are a team that can be vulnerable if you can keep them from the big hit. That is easier said than done, particularly with Bryce Harper in their lineup. But, it will be critical for the Astros to limit the damage against the Phillies and keep them from the big innings that have fueled their ascension this postseason.
Make the Phillies pay for their mistakes.
Against the Yankees, every mistake in the field had consequences for New York. And, on the other side, the Astros limited their mistakes. Much of that is due to the fact that the Astros sport one of the best defenses in all of baseball. As a friend recently said to us, “Defense might not necessarily win a game, but it certainly can cost you one.”
The Phillies were twenty-fifth in defensive rating this season while the Astros were fourth. That is owed in part to the fact that a number of their everyday players — particularly in the outfield and at first — are probably closer to designated hitters than fielders. It would be like having three Yordan Alvarez’s in the outfield, but without the cannon for an arm.
Fangraphs.com has the Phillies listed as the second worst team in baseball when it comes to “error runs,” which measures the number of runs allowed over league average due to errors in the field. When and if the Phillies make a mistake, the Astros must capitalize. They have the ability to create big innings through big hits and opponents miscues. The Astros are devastating when they rack up hits and force their opponents into making difficult plays. That aggression often leads to runs and they will need that to defeat this really tough Phillies squad.
Prediction: Astros in 6
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2022.
