A poll of Harris County voters shows U.S. Senate hopeful James Talarico leading scandal-plagued GOP nominee Ken Paxton by 22 percentage points, but can the Democrats mobilize enough people to get their candidate across the finish line?
A 12-day early voting period kicks off today, October 19, for dozens of competitive — and some highly contentious — midterm races. Harris County has one of the longest ballots in the nation, with most voters deciding an average of 100 contests.
The outcome locally could dictate what happens statewide, as Harris County comprises about 15 percent of the total votes in Texas.
“If you have a close statewide race and you rack up a big lead in Harris County, that could be the deciding factor,” said Renee Cross, senior executive director of the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs.
That’s why the Hobby School’s latest poll, released last week, is getting so much attention. It suggests most Harris County voters plan to vote Democrat in statewide races and the county judge contest.
Cross says the Hobby School polls have a high rate of accuracy in predicting election results but notes that just 2,750 of Harris County’s 2.75 million registered voters were surveyed, and then the poll drilled down to Precincts 2 and 4 for favorability ratings on Commissioners Lesley Briones and Adrian Garcia, both of whom are up for re-election.
Political scientists continue to say a statewide blue wave is unlikely but a few key seats could be flipped.
“Think about it in historical terms,” Cross said, referencing a competitive 2018 midterm Senate race between Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz during the first Trump administration. Cruz, the Republican, narrowly won with 50 percent of the vote to O’Rourke’s 48 percent. O’Rourke won Harris County with 58 percent of the vote.
“Beto was battling it out with Cruz, and [Democrat County Judge Lina] Hidalgo came in and took everyone by surprise and won against a very popular incumbent county judge,” Cross said. “Just think of that dynamic but on steroids. We are in a different political environment today in terms of disapproval of Republican policies, particularly President Trump. It’s affecting all races, not just in Texas, but across the nation. You’re seeing Democrats be very competitive in districts that should be reliably Republican.”
Early voting runs from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. October 19-30, with limited hours from noon to 7 p.m. on Sunday, October 25. Election Day is November 3. View sample ballots and polling places at Harris Votes.
Statewide
Experts say the seat most likely to flip is the Senate post that was held by John Cornyn for more than two decades. Paxton, who currently serves as Texas attorney general, ousted Cornyn in the primary but has had an uphill battle in his race against Talarico and no-showed for a debate last week.
Cross said people are unlikely to shift their votes due to debunked rumors that Talarico abandoned the campaign trail to check into a mental hospital. However, photos that surfaced in the Wall Street Journal of Paxton partying in Dubai on New Year’s Eve 2024 with his girlfriend and two fugitives who had been indicted on federal health care fraud charges “could be crushing because it hits so many areas that do not favor Paxton.”
“Voters know a lot about Talarico and Paxton,” Cross said. “It would take a lot for the die-hard Democrats voting for Talarico and the really conservative Republicans voting for Paxton to change their minds. In light of all the baggage Paxton has, it’s unlikely that a rumor that Talarico checked into a mental hospital is going to move people. It can also cause backlash for Paxton.”
According to the Hobby School poll, Talarico (58 percent) leads Paxton (36 percent) by 22 percentage points. In the November 2024 Texas U.S. Senate election, Democrat Colin Allred bested Cruz by 11.4 percentage points in Harris County, while Cruz defeated Allred statewide by 8.5 percentage points.
“The poll numbers are probably not going to move a lot, but there is one critical piece, and that is how successful these campaigns are in turning out their supporters,” Cross said. “That has been dogging Paxton, which will affect the down-ballot county races. There are plenty of Republicans who may not vote for Paxton — that doesn’t mean they’ll vote for Talarico — but they’ll just skip that vote or they may not turn out.”
The Hobby School poll shows that Harris County voters are choosing the Democrat in the governor’s race.
Democrat challenger Gina Hinojosa (56 percent) leads incumbent Greg Abbott (40 percent) by 16 percentage points. In the November 2022 Texas gubernatorial election, O’Rourke bested Abbott by 9.6 percentage points in Harris County, while Abbott defeated O’Rourke statewide by 10.9 percentage points.
But Cross says the Democrats showed their enthusiasm and momentum during the March primaries this year in a way that feels different from elections past.
“Somebody said the other day on one of the talk shows that Democrats’ popularity may have crested too soon,” she said. “Maybe, but the Republicans are fighting against so many negatives, and to be fair, these are things that are out of their control: Trump’s tariffs, his various scandals, the price of groceries and certainly the war in Iran.”
“I don’t think we can discount how much President Trump is dragging down the Republican ticket, even in ruby red Texas,” she added.
Other key statewide races include lieutenant governor (Republican incumbent Dan Patrick vs. Rep. Vikki Goodwin); attorney general (Democrat Sen. Nathan Johnson vs. Sen. Mayes Middleton); railroad commissioner (Democrat Jon Rosenthal vs. former Tarrant County Republican Party Chair Bo French); and agriculture commissioner (Democrat Clayton Tucker vs. Republican Nate Sheets).
Harris County Judge
According to the Hobby School poll, 71 percent of Harris County voters believe Harris County is headed in the wrong direction, including 79 percent of Republicans, 79 percent of Independents and 63 percent of Democrats.
Since County Judge Hidalgo is not seeking a third term, whomever is elected next month will be new to the position. On the ballot are former Houston City Council member Letitia Plummer, a Democrat, and former Harris County treasurer Orlando Sanchez.
The poll shows that close to half of Harris County voters don’t know enough about the candidates to have an opinion, but Plummer is leading, 47 percent to 40 percent.
“Seven points is not a huge lead, but it looks pretty solid,” Cross said. “If something drastic happens in the next two to three weeks, it could make that race much more competitive, but it looks pretty safe for her.”
The priority issues influencing voters in Harris County in the county judge’s race include crime and public safety, property taxes and voting rights.
While it looks like Democratic incumbent commissioners Lesley Briones and Adrian Garcia have a good chance at re-election, Briones has a low (35 percent) favorability rating. Both recently voted for a property tax increase.
According to the poll, Garcia leads his GOP opponent Richard Vega by 12 percentage points; Briones has an 8 percentage point lead over her challenger, Steve Radack.
Houston Referendum on Weed Enforcement
Buried at the bottom of the ballot for those who live within the Houston city limits is a proposition to decriminalize possession of small amounts of marijuana and eliminate the Houston Police Department’s ability to serve “no-knock” warrants.
Mayor John Whitmire has said that possession of less than 2 ounces of weed is already a low priority for law enforcement, and officers don’t enter homes unannounced to serve warrants.
But they can, argue advocates with Ground Game Texas, who petitioned to get the measures on the ballot and say they want the policies codified.
Fort Bend County Judge
It’s not a Harris County race, but the Fort Bend County judge contest is being watched across the Lone Star State.
A Texas Southern University poll released earlier this month shows Precinct 4 Commissioner Dexter McCoy with a 9-percentage-point lead over Interim County Judge Daniel Wong.
The stakes are high, as the Fort Bend County Commissioners Court has been in turmoil since former Judge KP George was convicted of felony money laundering earlier this year.
Many Democrats have questioned whether Wong is legally serving as interim judge, maintaining that his appointment expired in June. McCoy and fellow Democrat Commissioner Grady Prestage have boycotted commissioners court meetings for more than three months, saying the proceedings are illegal. They did, however, show up to a September 10 meeting to vote on the budget and tax rate.
Cy-Fair Bond Issue
Residents within the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD boundaries will get to decide on a 12-cent Voter-Approved Tax Rate Election and a $1.63 billion bond proposition.
Proposition A (VATRE) would cover teacher and staff compensation, campus safety personnel, instructional materials, programs and transportation.
Proposition B (building bond, $1.3 billion) would fund essential facility renovations, modernize technology and cybersecurity frameworks and allow for the acquisition of new school buses with three-point seat belts required by the state.
Proposition C (technology bond, $256 million) would replace or update instructional technology devices and classroom displays.
Proposition D (athletic bond, $60.8 million) would pay for new artificial turf, resurfacing of competition tracks and updating stadium scoreboards.
Proposition E (swimming pools bond, $20.1 million) would fund the replacement of water filtration pumps and re-plastering of middle and high school pools.
Voters don’t have to approve or deny the whole package; a separate vote is cast for each of the five propositions.
And regardless of whether a voter plans to go red or blue, the message from County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth is a simple one. “Make a plan and vote,” she said. “Vote early and vote the whole ballot.”
