As of this writing, we are less than two months from pitchers and catchers reporting. The offseason goes fast if you aren’t paying attention. But the next most important date on the league calendar is the beginning of the arbitration period starting January 13.
On that date, teams and players must exchange their offers for salary arbitration going into next season. In a rather odd system, an arbiter will select either the player number or the team number. That can be awkward if the team offers something low in comparison to the player (see: Kyle Tucker in 2023). But, it is the system we have for now.
The Astros have seven players heading for arbitration and another two key players under contract who will be free agents after this season. At least a couple of those arbitration eligible players have the potential for long term signings before they become free agents in 2026. Let’s take a look at the possibilities.
JOSE ALTUVE
Contract Status: Free Agent in 2025
Chances of Extension: 90 percent
This is likely to be the first and most significant offseason signing for the Astros. Altuve remains one of the best second basemen in the game and both he and the Astros seem set on him finishing his career in Houston. At 33, Altuve still has a few years on the back end of his prime, so expect a deal that will take him through age 37 or 38. By that time, he could be approaching some fairly significant milestones as a player and the Astros want him doing that here.
ALEX BREGMAN
Contract Status: Free Agent in 2025
Chances of Extension: 10 percent
Never say never, but it’s fairly clear Bregman wants to test the free agent market for the first time in 2025. He will be 30 at that time and still in his prime. There will no doubt be suitors willing to pony up huge dollar figures, but more importantly, lots of years, something the Astros have never done. The biggest issue for the Astros is they have no one in the pipeline to replace Bregman. Their minor league cupboards are bare, particularly at the hot corner, making it highly unlikely they move Bregman during the season rather than lose him to free agency. He seems to be on a collision course with free agency like George Springer and Carlos Correa before him.
KYLE TUCKER
Contract Status: Arbitration 2, Free Agent in 2026
Chances of Extension: 25 percent
Like Bregman, Tucker would love to hit free agency for a big payday in 2026, but this might be the one time the Astros consider caving on their policy of not signing players to long contracts. Tucker is just 26. An eight- or nine-year deal would keep him in left field through his prime, but likely not beyond it. If there was going to be any player where that deal might fit the team’s contract structure, Tucker is it. But, don’t hold your breath. Tucker probably wants to test the market in a couple years.
FRAMBER VALDEZ
Contract Status: Arbitration 3, Free Agent in 2026
Chance of Extension: 40 percent
Valdez might be the most intriguing potential extension of the entire group. The Astros are loaded with talented starting arms and Valdez is at the peak of his throwing prowess. But, he’s also 30 and a guy that, despite a no-hitter last season, struggled after the All-Star break. The chance he gets an extension from the Astros probably isn’t great, but the possibility he gets traded to a team that does extend him seems certainly plausible.
JOSE URQUIDY
Contract Status: Arbitration 2, Free Agent in 2026
Chance of Extension: 10 percent
Urquidy was a huge plus for the Astros last year when both Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers, Jr. went down with injuries that ended their seasons, but his age (28) and the fact that he is likely just their fifth best starter going into 2024 means he is likely to go through normal arbitration and then they’ll see next year. If Urquidy is moved into a bullpen role this season, it might make him more attractive next offseason.
MAURICIO DUBON
Contract Status: Arbitration 2, Free Agent in 2027
Chance of Extension: 5 percent
Coming off the year he had in 2023, Dubon should get a nice bump in arbitration. He is also expected to play a pivotal role yet again as the team’s utility man, the position for which he won a gold glove. But with several years of arbitration ahead and his age (29), the Astros won’t be in any hurry to ink Dubon long term.
LUIS GARCIA
Contract Status: Arbitration 1, Free Agent in 2027
Chance of Extension: 30 percent
Garcia certainly fits the mold of someone the team might want to avoid arbitration with and sign long term as they did with Cristian Javier before the 2023 season. But Garcia’s injury clouds all of that, at least for this offseason. Prior to his injury, Garcia was the best starter in the rotation. If he can return from injury and become one of their better starters late in the season, don’t be surprised if the team gets him under a contract next offseason.
CHAS MCCORMICK
Contract Status: Arbitration 1, Free Agent in 2027
Chance of Extension: 0 percent
It’s difficult not to feel like McCormick was anything other than dissed during the 2023 campaign. That is expected to change this season as McCormick will likely start in left field and still play plenty of center on days when Yordan Alvarez is in the field. The team clearly wants to see what a full season of McCormick can do while putting Jake Meyers in center to find out if he can be competitive at the position. If Chazzy Fizz has a big year at the plate, don’t be surprised to start hearing chirping about a deal for him after this year.
BRYAN ABREU
Contract Status: Arbitration 1, Free Agent in 2027
Chance of Extension: 0.5 percent
We put the tiniest of chances here because it is very possible (likely even) that Abreu becomes the team’s closer after this year. Both Ryan Pressly and Kendall Gravemen are free agents in 2025 and Abreu is the clear choice to move into the ninth inning role. With his stuff, he might even be able to start, but his role as a closer could be pivotal. If the Astros think they can buy low on Abreu and get him for the price of just a reliever and not a closer specifically, they might consider it, but, at this point, there’s no rush.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
