The echoes of the draft selections had barely stopped reverberating inside the train station at Kansas City which housed the NFL Draft last weekend, when the oddsmakers did what they do every year — immediately shifted their wager-taking focus to the NEXT NFL Draft, and which player would be selected with the first overall pick.
The 2024 draft is nearly a year away, but if we are to buy into the first set of “First Selection in 2024 NFL Draft” odds, it’s a layup as to who some lucky team will take with the first pick. Courtesy of The Action Network, here are the first set of odds on 2024’s top selection in the NFL Draft:
USC QB Caleb Williams -550
UNC QB Drake Maye +600
Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. +2000
Penn State OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu +2500
Notre Dame OT Joe Alt +2500
Ohio State DL Michael Hall Jr. +3000
Alabama CB Kool-Aid McKinstry +3000
Florida State DE Jared Verse +3500
Alabama OLB Dallas Turner +3500
Arkansas QB K.J. Jefferson +4000
Texas QB Quinn Ewers +5000
Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. +5000
South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler +6000
Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders +6000
LSU QB Jayden Daniels +6000
Oregon QB Bo Nix +8000
Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall +8000
Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka +8000
Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy +8000
OK, a few thoughts on these odds, starting with the local take on this:
The Will Anderson trade likely makes Texan fans following this moot
If you’re a mock draft enthusiast like I am, then you’ve already gone into your Google machine and started searching on mock drafts for 2024. If you’ve done this then you’ve likely seen that there is very little confidence in the Texans out there for 2023. Most experts think their first round pick will land in the top five again. However, the problem for Texan fans is that said pick is owned by the Cardinals, due to the Will Anderson trade. Thus, the best way for this list to be relevant, faithful Texan fan, is to root against the Cleveland Browns — shouldn’t be too tough, because Deshaun — as the Texans do have the Browns No. 1 pick next season.
Caleb Williams IS “that dude”
Make no mistake, the odds being -550 on a guy being the No. 1 overall pick at ANY point in the draft process, let alone a full year out, means that Williams is the real deal. After transferring from Oklahoma to USC, following head coach Lincoln Riley from Norman to Los Angeles, Williams won the Heisman Trophy in 2022, and is lined up for a huge season in 2023. He brings all the tools to the table, in a height and weight package that won’t scare teams like Bryce Young’s diminutive frame.
Spencer Rattler on this list is an annual tradition
If the name “Spencer Rattler” jumps out at you and feels familiar on an odds board like this, there’s a good reason. In the spring of 2021, a full two years ago, Rattler was actually the FAVORITE to get drafted first overall back in 2022. Rattler was on the board again last spring, after transferring from Oklahoma ro South Carolina before the 2022 season. I think Rattler surprised some folks by coming back to South Carolina for another season in 2023. He definitely has high level arm talent. I think he has zero chance of being the top pick, but he is an intriguing prospect.
My sleeper pick is….
Quinn Ewers of Texas is VERY intriguing at +5000 (50 to 1, for those who don’t speak fluent gambling). Ewers was dealing in the near upset of Alabama last season, before he was hurt. He has an effortless throwing motion and doesn’t have to ascend too far up teams’ big boards to get to No. 1. Ewers would probably need something drastic to happen with Williams’ stock in 2023, but Ewers has the arm talent, overall makeup, and supporting cast to get into the “number one overall” conversation.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
