For football fans who blend their love their for football perfectly between college and the NFL, and for professional football fans who seek mere hope every spring, Christmas morning is here. The 2026 NFL Draft starts tonight in Pittsburgh, where it’s widely expected that the Las Vegas Raiders will kick off the festivities by selecting Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
The Houston Texans wake up this morning with eight picks in their satchel, including four of the top 69 selections, the extra second round pick courtesy of the trade of Laremy Tunsil to the Washington Commanders. It should be an exciting three days for Texan fans, but might be a disappointing first night. I’ll explain in a moment.
The Raiders’ drafting Mendoza is one of the easiest predictions to make in this draft. You’re not here for obvious takes and prognostications. Let’s get bold! Here are my four bold predictions for tonight’s first night of the three day, seven round NFL Draft:
Nick Caserio will actually move up in the first round this year, not out of it
The last two years, Nick Caserio has maneuvered the Texans OUT of the first round of the draft by trading back and, in the process, securing more draft equity. There is a ton of speculation that he may do that this draft, especially if Alabama QB Ty Simpson falls into the late 20s, and a team may want to move up from the second round to draft him. That team could call Caserio, like the Giants did last year in trading for Jaxson Dart, and move up. Reportedly, a ton of teams are looking to move back in this first round. I think Caserio might see this as an opportunity to move up somewhat inexpensively and get a higher level first round prospect, especially if someone like Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq slips into the teens.
Jeremiyah Love will get selected by a team moving up for him
Several teams have the Notre Dame running back Love as the number one player on their big boards. Typically, the big boards don’t factor in positional value, and the fact of the matter is that running back is not viewed as a premium position. However, Love is special. He is viewed as the rare back worth a top five pick. Love is most often mocked to the Titans at the fourth overall pick, but there is buzz now that the Cardinals could be looking at Love third overall. Add in the Giants at fifth and the Commanders at seventh both being viewed as Love landing spots, there’s too much buzz around Love for everyone just to stand pat and let it play out. I think the Cardinals are able to weasel a pick out of either the Titans or Giants to swap spots with them, and allow them to take Love.
Jacob Rodriguez will go in the first round
Rodriguez was the heartbeat of a Texas Tech team that had the best season in the history of the school, securing a bye in the College Football Playoff. Rodriguez was the defensive leader of one of the best defenses in college football, and while there are teammates of his on that defense (David Bailey, Lee Hunter) getting more overall draft buzz, Rodriguez may be viewed by a team as a future culture setter. Multiple mocks have the Cowboys using the first round pick they received in the Micah Parsons trade (20th overall) as a landing spot for Rodriguez. He feels like a “high floor” prospect and a culture setter. Someone will bite on that in the late first round.
Half of the top eight players selected will be from Ohio State
Big picture, there aren’t that many “sizzle” storylines in this draft. Certainly, there is nothing approaching the Shedeur Sanders Fest that enveloped last year’s draft coverage. Fernando Mendoza is the undeniable first pick, and there’s a decent chance he’s helping an old woman across the street as you read this. Nice guys don’t sell, and so we’re left with some table scraps for storylines. One thing to watch, though, is how dominant Ohio State’s group of prospects is tonight. I predict that by the time the Chiefs pick at number nine, there will already be four Ohio State prospects off the board — DE Arvell Reese, LB Sonny Styles, S Caleb Downs, and WR Carnell Tate.
