Since December 21, 2024, a lot has happened with the Houston Texans. They’ve had two runs in the postseason, they’ve won a bunch of games (including a nine game winning streak to close out 2025), and some marquee players have been given millions of dollars worth of contract extensions.
Why did I pick that seemingly arbitrary date to begin this article? Because that was the day that Tank Dell’s knee was torn to shreds in an accidental collision with teammate Jared Wayne in a Week 16 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, and while much has occurred with the Texans in that time, in the background, Texan fans have been wondering “When will Tank come back?” Some have even pondered the much more depressing question “Will Tank ever come back?”
If you’re a Texans fan, you know what’s happened with Tank since that fateful day at Arrowhead Stadium. First, there were the multiple surgeries. Then, we began to see the social media posts of his rehab, with Dell, bit by bit, testing his repaired knee more and more. Dell didn’t play a single snap in 2025, but he was around the team at practice and on game days, and that was encouraging to see. One thing we learned over the last year — people like just SEEING Tank Dell. He radiates positivity.
As the 2026 offseason began, the questions about Dell for DeMeco Ryans and Nick Caserio became more and more specific, with Texan fans wanting to know if and when Dell’s comeback story hits its crescendo. The team has been ultra cautious in what they’ve allowed Dell to do at practice, with the extent of his participation being walk throughs and some light throwing drills with no defenders checking him.
Again, it’s a slow burn, and it’s nice to see Dell back out there running, even if it’s against air. However, if you’re looking for hope that Dell comes back for Week 1, we may have gotten the most positive development yet in the Dell saga, and it involved zero physical activity. The team let Dell speak to the media on Friday, and in about ten minutes of microphone time Dell took us inside his rehab, the ups and downs, and how encouraged he is about how his story ends.
“Right now we’re just taking it one day at a time,” Dell said on Friday. “There’s light at the end of the tunnel for sure I’ll be out there, but we’re just taking it one day at a time. That’s all we’re doing.”
I doubt the team would have let Tank dish about his situation to the media, if things weren’t progressing in the right direction. That’s just the way of the NFL. Teams generally don’t make players available when they’re struggling with injury recovery.
All of a sudden, though, my optimism level on Dell has skyrocketed. I actually put up a poll for Texans fans on X, with the four possible Week 1 scenarios for Dell, and asked which one is their best guess:
Independent of the poll results, here are the percentages I would assign to each possibility:
On the 53-man roster, ACTIVE in Week 1 — 57 percent
I told you, I’m feeling bullish on the return of Tank Dell, and it’s not just the media availability. DeMeco Ryans’ comments about Tank’s return have generally skewed positive in camp. Also, the fact that the Texans didn’t put Dell on the Physically Unable to Perform list to start camp is somewhat of a bet that he will be ready for Week 1.
On the 53-man roster, INACTIVE in Week 1 — 16 percent
On injured reserve — 25 percent
I’m grouping these two together, because they are somewhat interrelated. I actually think that’s maybe I’m being a little too aggressive with 16 percent for the “INACTIVE” scenario, because if Tank is on the 53-man roster, it means he is healthy enough to play. If he’s not healthy, then he’s much more likely to be on IR than being inactive on game day against the Bills.
Cut by the Texans — 2 percent
I’m putting this at a minuscule percentage, because I think, even if Dell suffered some sort of medical setback in camp that affected his availability for the season, the Texans would put him on injured reserve and keep him around, because they like him.
