With two preseason games in the books, and one more to go, along with a handful of practices remaining in the preseason, Houston Texan fans are generally pretty excited about the team’s 2023 rookie class. Quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson are the crown jewels of the class, but it appears that GM Nick Caserio may have hit big in the second round with center Juice Scruggs, the third round with wide receiver Tank Dell, and the fifth round with linebacker Henry To’o To’o.
Time will tell, as the real games begin on September 10, and the first assignment against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, in Baltimore, won’t be easy, but the foundation is being installed nicely for future success. In short, I’m a believer in this group, and if you’re a believer, you can put your money where your heart is! (Do I feel like some huckster just typing those words? Yes, yes I do, but who cares?)
The money of which I write, of course, is money thrown down in a sports book on the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards. Two weeks into the preseason schedule, here is where the two Texans future studs stack up:
OFFENSIVE ROOKIE of the YEAR ODDS
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson: +300
Panthers QB Bryce Young: +400
Texans QB C.J. Stroud: +650
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs: +700
Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +700
Colts QB Anthony Richardson: +900
Ravens WR Zay Flowers: +1200DEFENSIVE ROOKIE of the YEAR ODDS
Eagles DT Jalen Carter: +500
Texans EDGE Will Anderson Jr.: +500
Raiders EDGE Tyree Wilson: +650
Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon: +700
Packers EDGE Lukas Van Ness: +1000
Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez: +1000
A few thoughts on these big boards, as you ponder my robust investment opportunities:
Stroud has shown good signs so far, but team success will matter
If we are looking at the Offensive Rookie of the Year side of things, Robinson is a logical favorite. He is perhaps the most talented player in this rookie class, and he is playing a position where he can pile up impressive stats, in a bad division, and most importantly, he has a head coach who has a history of deploying running backs like they have an endless number of carries on their odometer. The Falcons can go 5-12, but if Robinson has 1,800 yards rushing, he wins the award. Stroud (and Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson, for that matter) will likely need to have a team that overachieves in their won-loss record, as it’s unlikely any of them will approach milestone stats. That’s the way it goes for young quarterbacks.
Will Anderson has gone from clear favorite to a more bunched field
When the oddsmakers posted odds on Defensive Rookie of the Year before the season, Anderson was a clear cut favorite at +300. He has now settled in at +500, tied with Jalen Carter of the Eagles, who himself has flashed with some big plays in the preseason. Worth noting, oftentimes in this day and age, a highlight on Instagram can move the odds. Weird market. That said, Anderson had a nice little outing for his campaign on Saturday at NRG Stadium:
Bijan Robinson is the favorite on offense, but keep an eye on another former Longhorn
If you’re looking for sleepers for either of these awards, guys who may not be near the top of the board right now, but might be worth monitoring or throwing a sawbuck on once the season gets going, I give you Robinson’s backfield partner at the University of Texas, Chicago’s Roschon Johnson. Johnson probably would have put up big numbers in college, if he were on almost any other team aside from Robinson’s, and he’s looked fantastic early in Chicago’s training camp, and in preseason games. On Sunday, against the Colts, on a 17-play, 92-yard drive for a touchdown, Johnson did the heavy lifting, including runs of 10 and 14 yards, and a catch for 11 yards. Khalil Herbert appears to be the lead back in Chicago, but nothing is etched in stone. Keep an eye on Johnson.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
