The Astros are one of baseball’s conundrums. From the outside, the stats look good. They are near the top of the sport in the big numbers like runs scored, batting average, OPS and ERA. But, they remain a team that is just barely over .500 at home and has struggled, at times, to find any kind of momentum at the plate. Nevermind the fact that, beyond their two ace starters, the rotation has been iffy at best for nearly two months.
They can go into Arlington and absolutely dominate the Rangers then come home and get shut out by the woeful A’s. It is simply confounding.
So, what gives? Who is this team and which one will show up come the postseason? Maybe it would be best to look at the players who have been most consistent and provided the best options at their respective positions most of the season versus those who haven’t. While past performance is no guarantee of the future, it at least can help shed some light on where we are now.
Mostly Consistent
Pitchers: Hector Neris, Framber Valdez, Bryan Abreu
Position Players: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Chas McCormick
When it comes to pitching, the Astros bullpen remains one of the best in baseball, but it has taken time to figure out just who works there and who doesn’t. Neris has quietly put together one of his best seasons and is the leader of that group and Abreu, despite a lack of control in the middle of the year, is absolutely dealing. Valdez, while not as dominant every night as the team might like, is clearly the best in the starting rotation, which is worrisome.
We can and should rave about Tucker and Alvarez. Both continue to be two of the game’s best hitters and Tucker is quickly turning around the “down defensive year” label he acquired earlier in the season. But, what Altuve has done at 33 years old after missing a third of the season with injuries is remarkable, and McCormick, despite his limited opportunities (we all know that story), is third on the team in OPS at nearly .900.
Somewhat Consistent
Pitchers: Justin Verlander, J.P. France, Kendall Graveman, Phil Maton
Position Players: Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz, Mauricio Dubon
When Verlander returned, he certainly helped to solidify the rotation, even if he isn’t exactly the player the Astros counted on last season, but the award for “praise the lord for you” pitching goes to France. A guy no one had even heard of at the start of the season has arguably been on of the team’s most reliable starters. Graveman has also helped to stabilize the bullpen and Maton, now back from injury, is trying to regain his first-half dominance.
Bregman has done what he often seems to do: he’s beginning to dominate. A rather forgettable first three months of the season has swung the other way, if not entirely, certainly close. Dubon doesn’t get the time he got when Altuve was out, but he is still a very solid hitter and quality defender at multiple positions. And what can we say about the Astros best rookie in Diaz other than he should be getting more reps at catcher.
Somewhat Inconsistent
Pitchers: Hunter Brown, Raphael Montero, Ryan Pressly
Position Players: Jeremy Peña, Jake Meyers
In fairness, we shouldn’t expect Brown to be JV, Jr. at this point in his career. He is, after all, a bona fide rookie. But, he was so promising last year, it was tempting to pencil him in as a top two guy. Now, next year with more innings under his belt, we should absolutely see improvement, but the team needs him now. Pressly has blown too many saves despite his occasional brilliance as a closer. And talk about riches to rags to riches, Montero was about to get booed out of Houston and now he is back to where he was at the start of the year. Wild.
It’s almost unfair to put Peña here given he is hitting over .300 the last six weeks, doesn’t swing nearly as much at bad pitches and remains one of the best defensive short stops in baseball, but it took him a LONG time to get here and his power numbers remain disturbingly low. Meyers, who was supposedly in the mix as a starter early in the year in center field, just hasn’t had the opportunities. He remains an outstanding defender and will definitely get pinch run opportunities in the postseason.
Mostly Inconsistent
Pitchers: Cristian Javier, Ryne Stanek
Position Players: Jose Abreu, Martin Maldonado
Javier has seemingly been suffering from dead arm for some time. If you think that he played into November after less than half a season as a starter then played in the WBC, it’s difficult not to sympathize, but he is on the cusp of going from top two or three in the rotation to missing the postseason. Stanek was FINALLY starting to work out of whatever funk he had been in much of the season before his ankle injury, which will probably keep him out of the postseason simply because the team will have better options.
The biggest free agent signing hasn’t been a complete bust, but Abreu remains one of the worst hitting first baseman in baseball despite an uptick in his efficiency at the plate. We assumed his power numbers would come down a bit, but the fact that he is so far below his typical batting average is so disappointing. And as much as we love Machete, there is no stat that makes him a better option than Diaz, yet he’s getting the bulk of the reps because of his game management. We’ll see if that backfires on the Astros.
The Jury is Still Out
Pitchers: Jose Urquidy
Position Players: Michael Brantley
With so much time lost, we really don’t know what we have with Urquidy. It is clear he will be mostly a bullpen option for the team, or someone to piggyback with another pitcher. But we aren’t sure who we will get when he does play.
As for Uncle Mike, he has been sensational in his return, but that naturally means fewer opportunities for Diaz. Still, if Brantley can be even 75 percent of normal Michael Brantley, it’s a win for the Astros.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
