The 2025 season is likely going to be one of the most difficult to predict for the Astros in quite some time. For years, we’ve gone into each season expecting them to not only win the division, but to be a World Series contender if not an outright favorite. Going into 2025 with so many changes and questions at positions around the diamond, it is safe to assume the likelihood of another championship is slim.
That doesn’t mean the Astros won’t or cannot have a great season that includes the playoffs. The odds are assisted by the fact that they are in the worst division in baseball. Still, if you really break down the possibilities, there is nearly as much bad in that list as good. Let’s break it down.
The Astros Are Still Inevitable Scenario
90-plus wins, Division Title, Deep Postseason Run
Odds: 10 percent
Astros fans are certainly hoping for this to happen. Best case, Jose Altuve flourishes in left field, Christian Walker goes Gold Glove again at first, Isaac Paredes turns into a legit third baseman of the future, the pitching remains healthy, and the bullpen actually improves. A lot of pieces have to fall perfectly into place for this to make sense, but it’s not like the Astros don’t collectively know how to win. Thus far, so many of their moves have worked, why not one more time? Suddenly, a season of transition becomes one of hope not just for this year but future seasons ahead. They would also need contributions from some youngsters and a key trade or two along the way, but it certainly would be fun at Daikin Park this season.
The Most Likely Scenario
80-plus wins, Division Title, Out in the First Round
Odds: 50 percent
There are more questions than answers for this Astros team, more than we have had in quite some time. Still, this not a bunch of also-ran players. There is real talent on this roster and they remain in what is the league’s worst division. That keeps them smack dab in the middle of the playoff hunt even if their chances once they get there aren’t great. Think a situation similar to 2024 but perhaps with slightly fewer injuries and some key rookies emerging. This doesn’t make for a title contender, but it could keep the Astros in the hunt. Owner Jim Crane is fond of saying the Astros window is never closed as long as he is in charge. But it’s probably just cracked with the shades drawn slightly at this point. Not sure this is the scenario fans would love, but it’s better than some of the alternatives.
The Ugh Scenario
Under 80 wins, Lose Division, Miss Postseason
Odds: 30 percent
Injuries would be the leading cause of such a downturn, but imagine for a moment prospects not quite working out, Altuve struggling mightily in left field, Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers scuffling at the plate, Walker taking a Jose Abreu-level dive off the cliff, and a bullpen populated by unproven youngsters and the return of a mediocre Rafael Montero (God, help us!). NONE of these things is beyond the realm of possibility. The truth is 2025 is a year of transition for this franchise and having a down year is absolutely on the radar. With the talent level, a massive drop to 100 losses is probably far fetched. But missing the postseason is something we should all be prepared for and would finally bring an end to the Astros long, remarkable run.
The NO, GOD NO! Scenario
80-ish wins, Lose Division, Miss Postseason
Odds: 5 percent
In this timeline, the Astros struggle in the first half of the season, panic, and send away key prospects for a veteran or veterans they think can provide them with the oomph they need to make the playoffs even if they have little hope of making the World Series. We’ll call this the Drayton McLane Timeline where the farm system, what little of it exists, is mortgaged heavily for a change that doesn’t actually improve the team. They still lose the division. They still miss the playoffs. And the marginal future they have banked away in the minors is sent to prosper elsewhere. Like we said, absolutely ugly, but also unlikely. GM Dana Brown and owner Jim Crane seem generally patient and, if their patience doesn’t keep this from coming to fruition, Crane’s relative frugality when it comes to the luxury tax should stop them from going fire sale out of desperation.
The Return to 2011 Scenario
Under 70 wins, Lose Division, Miss Postseason
Odds: 5 percent
Let’s call this the Jeff Luhnow Fire Sale timeline. In this situation, the Astros are just plain bad. Everything they try falls apart, so they decide to rebuild the farm system the way they did when Crane first bought the team. Everyone whose name isn’t “Altuve” is likely on the block (OK, maybe not Yordan!) and the tank is on. Young players are brought up and the roster is populated with rookies and journeymen. Now, fortunately, this isn’t the radically old, overpaid teams of McLane’s final years so they shouldn’t need three straight 100-loss seasons to recover, but it would be a huge change from the decade of winning we’ve been through around here. Still very unlikely it will happen, but it’s not like we haven’t seen this before.
