If someone told you this winter that by May 6 the Astros would lose Hunter Brown, Josh Hader, Tasuya Imai, Cristian Javier, Nate Pearson, Carlos Correa, Jake Meyers, Yainer Diaz, Jeremy Peña and Joey Loperfido would all occupy the same injured list, you would probably imagine this was a bad team.
You’d be right.
The losses have been devastating and that doesn’t even include players still recovering from last year like Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski, or young players like Zack Dezenzo and Zach Cole who have spent time on the IL this year.
The latest blow with Correa destroying his Achilles during batting practices sure takes the shine off the potential return of several guys currently on the IL.
And while all this might excuse a brutal 15-23 record, it doesn’t fully explain it away. That’s because it also reveals what experts all around baseball have been telling us for years now: the Astros farm system is a mess.
No minor league system for any franchise is meant to prop up an ailing roster entirely. But, with so few legitimate prospects (zero in the top 100), it exacerbates what is already a full blown disaster.
Then you have the roster construction. We all knew it was oddly imbalanced to start the season, a mix of aging veterans and unproven youngsters with depth to spare in the infield but little depth in the outfield. What felt like a LOT of potential starting pitching signed in the offseason — Dana Brown was clear you can never have too much pitching — turned out to just be a bunch of arms serving up batting practices and a 6+ ERA.
This isn’t to say there aren’t bright spots for the Astros. They still have Yordan Alvarez and despite whatever social media might say, moving him is a non-negotiable at this point. A thin outfield has turned into a pretty fun group of young players, still trying to find their way at the plate but demonstrating some remarkable athletic skills in the meantime.
Also, there is Isaac Paredes. All of the talk of trading him before the season now seems wildly premature though he might be one of their best trade assets at the deadline.
Now come the questions. While this team isn’t technically out of the race in an abysmal AL West, the writing is clearly on the wall. The team does not have the trade pieces to make any significant “buyer” moves and it wouldn’t be a shock if, setting aside a full on fire sale, Jim Crane decided trimming payroll in a lost season while adding some prospects in the process might not be such a terrible idea.
They will be out from under the albatross that is Lance McCullers, Jr’s contract this offseason, but they will still be carrying Correa, Christian Walker, Imai (unless he runs back to Japan, which might not be the worst idea at this point), Hader and Jose Altuve. That’s before they decide whether or not to sign Peña long term.
Oh, right, also neither the GM or the manager have contracts after this season.
Crane brought in Dana Brown to rebuild the farm system specifically. Doing that while keeping a major league roster solid — the window is always open as long as Crane is owner, remember? — is a tough gig, to be sure. But given where we are at this point, it is difficult to call this anything but an abject failure.
Even with the injuries.
