Given how similar their respective spots are in each of their sports, on the cusp of being a title contender but not quite there yet, we discuss the Texans, Rockets, and Astros quite a bit, both on the radio and on social media. Which of those teams will be the next to win the city a title? That’s a common question we kick around.
The answer might be “None of the above,” as the University of Houston men’s basketball teams jumps onto the HOV lane on this highway of championship debate, and sails past all three to the Final Four in San Antonio this weekend. Saturday night, the Coogs will get a chance to exact revenge against the team that knocked them out of last season’s tournament, the Duke Blue Devils.
The hatred for all things Duke, along with the love for all things Houston, should be enough to fuel emotion on Saturday night, but if you need that little extra nudge, you know that you can always count on gambling to scratch you where you itch! With that in mind, here are my best bets on the Coogs’ semifinal matchup with the Blue Devils, along with a bonus bet on the other seminal matchup between Florida and Auburn.
Here you go:
Houston +4.5
Houston-Duke UNDER 136.5
Let’s start with the play on the spread, in which I happily take the 4.5 points Vegas wants to give me, and honestly, I’ll probably sprinkle some money on the Coogs to win the game outright. Duke is a great team at both ends of the floor, but I just don’t think they’ve seen anything like this Houston defense, where they contest every pass and every shot, and it feels like there are seven of them out there. Duke hasn’t faced a Top 15 defense since December. At the very least, the Coogs are set up to to jump on Duke early, so maybe a first half bet on Houston +2.5 makes sense.
As for the pick of UNDER on the total points scored in the game, the Coogs hang their hat on their defense, which is the best in the country, according to the KenPom website, and only allowed more than 70 points in regulation four times all season. Duke, though, is a great offensive team, so in addition to sheer tenacity against them, I am guessing Kelvin Sampson will want to avoid a shootout with the Blue Devils. Controlling the tempo with his experienced guards will be a key for Sampson’s squad. This version of the Coogs can shoot (three players with a 42 percent or better three point percentage), but Duke held a sharp shooting Alabama team to 8-32 from three in the Elite Eight. In other words, slower tempo and two great defensive teams equals an UNDER for me.
Auburn +2.5
These two teams actually played each other back in February, with Florida pulling off the upset on Auburn’s home floor as an 11 point underdog, so it’s interesting that less than two months later, Florida is a 2.5 point favorite on a neutral court. That’s a big swing in just eight weeks, too big. So start there, Auburn is a little undervalued here. Now, add in the way both teams have played in this tournament. Auburn has been consistent, winning by an average of nearly 13 points per game. Conversely, Florida is lucky to even be alive, as UConn took them to the brink in the second round, and they needed a monster comeback — ten point deficit with three minutes to go — to beat Texas Tech in the Elite Eight. Take the 2.5 points, or wait until Saturday to see if the spread jumps to +3 or more.
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