U. S. Rep Sheila Jackson Lee’s late-stage entry into the Houston mayor’s race certainly has upended the plans of her fellow Democratic candidates, but whether she automatically vaults into first place over Texas Sen. John Whitmire is open to debate.
This November’s mayoral election includes five other Democrats: Robert Gallegos, Houston city council member; Gilbert Garcia, former chairman of METRO transit authority; Chris Hollins, former Harris County clerk; Lee Kaplan, an attorney; and Amanda Edwards, former Houston city county member.
Jackson announced her candidacy to the public on Sunday at City Cathedral Church in Bellaire during a service. There was months-long speculation that the powerful congresswoman might run for the position, Rice University political professor Bob Stein said, but she hadn’t committed and, in fact, still has not yet released an official statement on her decision.
According to Stein, Jackson’s run may be a result of the congresswoman wanting more of an ability to get things done involving local priorities such as the recent takeover of Houston ISD by the Texas Education Agency, the I-45 expansion project, bail bond reform and accessibility to affordable housing.
“Congress isn’t where the action is anymore, many people think that local government is where things actually get done, so if you want to be doing good things, you probably want to get back to the local level,” Stein said.
Jackson has served in the U.S. Congress for 28 years, but before that she was on City Council so she certainly knows how things operate at that level.
Stein said Hollins and Edwards were expected to give Whitmire a run for his money, but they will have to try to beat out Jackson to have an opportunity to go head-to-head with Whitmire.
Brandon Rottinghaus, professor of political science at the University of Houston said Whitmire may still have an edge over the congresswoman because, unlike Jackson, he appeals to both the left and the right.
As a moderate Democrat, Whitmire has taken a more conservative approach on topics like crime and tends to favor law enforcement. This allows him to gain the support of Republicans, said Rottinghaus.
“He can define that sort of center left politics that’s been traditionally where most mayors have emerged from,” Rottinghaus said. “Other Democratic candidates, like Jackson, generally are more progressive.”
Rottinghaus said that though there are only Democrats in the race, he cannot see a Republican candidate contending for the mayor’s position as Whitmire already has widespread endorsements.
Jackson’s financial standing as well as some issues with employees in the past contributes to additional disadvantages in the race, said Stein.
Due to the late announcement, the congresswoman has not had the same timeframe to raise funds like her fellow candidates. Whitmire and Hollins have been raising funds for their mayoral campaigns for years, Stein said.
Whitmire is the lead fundraiser with $10 million; Hollins, Edwards and Kaplan have at least $1 million; while Jackson has an estimated $400,000 at her disposal, Stein said.
And according to Stein, unlike other candidates she is not a standard campaigner as she has not had a competitive race since the 1990s. This leaves her needing to raise money for the upcoming campaign and connecting with additional voters.
Mark Jones, political professor at Rice University says one positive that Jackson can rely on is the majority African American vote she will obtain, making it tougher for Hollins and Edwards to fill the run-off role.
According to Jones, this is an important advantage as the Black electorate is a key vote in Houston. A third of the voters from last November’s election were African Americans that rallied behind Black candidates on the ballot.
Jones said the other candidates may decide to drop out of the mayor’s race in order to run for either Jackson’s or Whitmire’s present seats.
“One interesting aspect of this is you have two political heavyweights who may lose their role for mayor, but also currently serve very powerful positions,” Jones said.
Rottinghaus said that if Jackson were to win the mayoral race, there would be a long line of candidates wanting a chance to secure her congressional seat; one of whom may be current Mayor Sylvester Turner.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
