A new survey from the University of Houston shows a marked drop in support for the war in Iran among Republicans if it involves ground troops.
The Hobby School of Public Affairs released their latest SPACE City Panel survey this week, the first quarterly survey since the United States and Israel launched a coordinated, large-scale military attack on Iran on February 28. The majority of respondents in the Greater Houston area (71 percent) opposed military action by the United States in Iran, though there is significant disagreement across party lines. While Democrats and Independents overwhelmingly disapprove of military action in Iran (90 percent and 84 percent respectively), a majority of Republicans do favor the war (63 percent).
However, that support drops dramatically when questioned specifically about sending ground troops in to invade Iran. When asked if they would support a ground war in Iran, Republican support for military action was only 39 percent).
Gail Buttorff, associate director of the Center for Public Policy and co-author of the survey, says that this response is not new in terms of war support.
“This is pretty consistent with the long-term research on support for war that, in general, voters and citizens are sensitive to the economic, political, and humanitarian costs,” she said in a phone interview. “Especially in terms of the human cost of war for their own citizens, which would be when you send in ground troops. That escalates those costs and makes it much more likely that Americans will be paying with their lives. It’s why we would see the drop in support. It’s one thing to have an aerial bombing campaign; it’s another to put a lot more American lives at risk.”
Thus far, U.S. military action in Iran has been mostly through naval combat and airstrikes. President Donald Trump has posted multiple messages to social media over the past month highlighting the United States’ ability to rain destruction through bombing. Faith in the power of America’s bombing capabilities is a core component of the Trump Administration’s messaging regarding the war.
Unfortunately, it is next to impossible to win a war simply through targeted bombing, even when it causes massive civilian casualties. Securing a meaningful military victory in Iran would almost certainly required an extended ground troop presence, and the University of Houston survey shows that this action would lose Trump considerable support.
One area of near-agreement in the survey is that Houstonians feel the war will make Houston less safe as well as have extended economic fallout. Eighty-eight percent expect energy prices to continue their rise, 86.4 percent believe it will increase the federal deficit and debt, and 85.6 percent said it would hurt the economy as a whole. This is true across party lines, with 83 percent of Republicans agreeing the war will likely negatively impact the United States.
“Even among Republicans, the expectations about the consequences of this war for, especially for Americans that are already struggling with the high cost of living, is negative,” said Gail Buttorff. “The expectation is this is going to exacerbate economic conditions.”
