One of the biggest changes in the National Football League over the last five years or so is that the offseason, more and more, has started to resemble the NBA’s offseason, where big time star players changing teams has become more normal.
In the NBA, star players are the few dozen who garner All Star and All NBA consideration every year. In the NFL, their equivalent to NBA star players are starting quarterbacks (and a few, select other players, but this post is about quarterbacks, so let’s maintain focus there!). In the last four off-seasons alone, here are the starting quarterbacks who changed teams in the offseason:
2020
Tom Brady, NE – signed with Tampa Bay
Philip Rivers, LAC – signed with Indianapolis
2021
Matthew Stafford, DET – traded to LA Rams
Jared Goff, LAR – traded to Detroit
Carson Wentz, PHI – traded to Indianapolis
Sam Darnold, NYJ – traded to Carolina
2922
Deshaun Watson, HOU – traded to Cleveland
Russell Wilson, SEA – traded to Denver
Matt Ryan, ATL – traded to Indianapolis
Baker Mayfield, CLV – traded to Carolina
2023
Aaron Rodgers, GB – traded to NY Jets
Derek Carr, LVG – signed with New Orleans
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF – signed with las Vegas
As you can see, there are certainly a variety of categories of starting NFL quarterback that have had to call movers the last few years. There are future Hall of Famers still playing at a high level (Brady, Rodgers), Pro Bowl players who have failed royally (Wilson, Watson), and failed draft picks looking for a change fo scenery (Darnold, Mayfield).
Now, here are the current starters I see as most likely to be on the move for the start of the 2024 NFL regular season:
MAC JONES, New England
This past week’s win over the Bills notwithstanding, the New England Patriots have been one of the most inept teams offensively this season. Jones may have peaked as a rookie in 2021, when he was the only first round rookie selected (out of five) to lead his team to the postseason that year. I don’t know that another team decides Jones is worth investing in as a starter, but I do think that, if the Patriots are picking in the top five of the draft, they view 2024 as a chance to reset everything, maybe even the head coach.
RYAN TANNEHILL, Tennessee Titans
Tannehill has been solid in his five seasons as the regular Titans starting quarterback, having made a handful of playoff appearances, including a run to the AFC title game in 2019. However, he has become more turnover prone, and the team has selected a young QB in each of the last two drafts. The writing is on the wall. Tannehill’s ceiling now is probably as a veteran bridge quarterback for a team who is selecting a young QB of the future (which is kind of what he is in Tennessee right now, come to think of it, albeit a VERY expensive one).
KIRK COUSINS, Minnesota Vikings
Cousins is a free agent after this season, so he will be able to choose where he goes next season. We know that the ceiling for Cousins is probably hanging around the edge of the top ten quarterbacks in the league, although he’s never really led any of his teams to anything substantial. The bigger question with Cousins is whether or not he will be traded in the next several days. There are a couple teams that could use him for a playoff push.
KYLER MURRAY, Arizona Cardinals
Murray signed a massive contract extension before the 2022 season, a decision I’m guessing the Cardinals would love to have back. Since that contract extension, Murray has been injured and the Cardinals have downgraded to becoming one of the worst outfits in the league. This is a team that should be in position to take a top quarterback in the draft. If they can find a way out from under Murray’s deal with only marginal future salary cap damage, they should jump at it.
DESHAUN WATSON, Cleveland Browns
Yeah, you heard me! Yes, I think THAT Deshaun Watson could be on the move again in 2024. Do I think it’s likely? No, but I do think it’s possible. There are a lot of moving parts with Watson, the most crucial of which is that he has not come even close to living up to the $230 million guaranteed deal he signed in March 2022, when he was traded from the Texans to the Browns. He’s been injured, off-putting, and bad at football. On top of that, the Browns have actually played better team football when Watson has missed time. It will cost the Browns some major salary cap damage (and perhaps vent draft capital) to unload his contract on some other team, but there’s a chance that the Browns are sick of Watson, and maybe even vice versa, by the end of the season. It’s worth keeping an eye on!
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
