The official record for snowfall in Houston is three inches. On Tuesday, the entire region is poised to break and potentially shatter that record thanks to a combination of circumstances that appear to be lining up in the just the right way.
Just the presence of snowfall in East Texas is a rarity. But, to have likely accumulations of three-plus to perhaps as much as nine inches in isolated spots is mind boggling. The vast majority of native Houstonians haven’t seen snow like this here ever. So, what gives? Why are we on the verge of a possible blizzard (even that could happen with potential wind gusts along the coast)? Let’s break it down.
The Arctic Blast
Virtually every year, Texas gets exposed to a batch of very cold air that filters down from the Arctic. Sometimes, this will come in the form of a polar vortex, a big area of dense cold that can drop temperatures across large swaths of the country. We are seeing that set up for a big part of the U.S. this week. It just so happens that this polar blast of air is strong enough that it will penetrate all the way to the Gulf of Mexico causing temperatures to plummet into the 20s. It won’t be as cold or as prolonged as the nightmare cold of 2021, but it certainly will pack a punch.
Gulf Low Pressure System
One thing Houston is used to is precipitation off the Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure systems, even the ones that don’t become tropical in nature, can dump a lot of rain on our part of the state. We’ve seen small systems turn into flash flooding during the spring and summer months, but it’s rare to see a disturbance like this spin up at the exact same time as some very cold weather approaches. That is our current circumstance. Moisture from the Gulf will come flowing into southeast Texas beginning Monday afternoon.
By the time the coldest air reaches the city Monday night and Tuesday morning, so will the most potent bands of precipitation. The result is the kind of classic banding we often see in summer thunderstorms, but this time it will be cold enough to freeze on its way to the ground. Perfect (or imperfect depending on your perspective) timing.
Snow vs. Ice
While roads will be very difficult to traverse thanks to freezing conditions and snow, it actually could be worse. We’ve had years when rain and freezing rain preceded a rapid cooling turning roads into ice rinks. Certainly bridges and overpasses will be susceptible to icing, but unlike 2021 when power lines and massive tree limbs froze and came crashing down, the air will be cold enough to freeze the water before it reaches the ground. Driving will still be nearly impossible, especially for drivers who have never dealt with this before, but it is unlikely to have the added impacts of icy conditions that can down power lines and trees, thankfully.
Radiational Cooling
On Wednesday morning, temperatures could drop into the upper teens, colder than originally expected thanks to a phenomena known as radiational cooling. In the summer, heat and moisture build up in the ground. The result is our typical warm, sticky night air. Concrete, as well, can hold heat and release it once the sun sets. What we rarely see is the opposite, when the ground, blanketed with snow holds the heat in and actually radiates cold air instead of warm.
As a result, instead of the protection afforded us by our normally warm weather, snow will inhibit any kind of warm up and, in fact, cause temps to drop like a stone. It might even keep temperatures cold enough on Wednesday to see the snow hang around until late morning on Thursday as well when we finally climb above freezing and get back to normal Houston winter weather.
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