The Houston Texans’ win over the Dallas Cowboys has put the team in a very good spot as we start to creep into the holiday season. As we outlined earlier this week, the team is a virtual lock to make the postseason come January, and in the short term, they’ve got about as favorable a patch of schedule to navigate as any team in the league.
The woeful Titans come to town on Sunday for a noon kickoff, and the following week, the Texans travel to Jacksonville to face the even-more-woeful Jacksonville Jaguars. Both the Titans and Jags have two wins apiece this season. After that, comes the bye week.
The Texans sit right now at 7-4, with nearly twice as many wins as their next two opponents combined. With six games left in the season, what does history tell us, specifically TEXANS history? Are they truly the lock for the postseason that the simulation world of computers envisions them as? Let’s dive in for a moment and look. Here is the comprehensive history of the Texans through eleven games each season (final season record in parentheses, and division title seasons in BOLD):
2002: 3-8 (4-12)
2003: 4-7 (5-11)
2004: 5-6 (7-9)
2005: 1-10 (2-14)
2006: 3-8 (6-10)
2007: 5-6 (8-8)
2008: 4-7 (8-8)
2009: 5-6 (9-7)
2010: 5-6 (6-10)
2011: 8-3 (10-6)
2012: 10-1 (12-4)
2013: 2-9 (2-14)
2014: 5-6 (9-7)
2015: 6-5 (9-7)
2016: 6-5 (9-7)
2017: 4-7 (4-12)
2018: 8-3 (11-5)
2019: 7-4 (10-6)
2020: 4-7 (4-12)
2021: 2-9 (4-13)
2022: 1-9-1 (3-13-1)
2023: 6-5 (10-7)
2024: 7-4 (???)
Okay, my sweeping takeaway from this is that, almost by rule, whatever the Texans have been through 11 games is what they end up being at the end of the season. There haven’t been any great Texans teams that have cratered, nor any mediocre Texans teams that have turned into dark horse Super Bow contenders.
Here are a few more specific and interesting observations:
Every time they’ve been 7-4 or better, they win the division and 10-plus games
The Texans have had a 7-4 record (or better) four other times in their history. Those seasons were 2011, 2012, 2018, and 2019. If you’re wondering what those seasons have in common, those are the four 16-game seasons in which the Texans won 10 or more games, two under Gary Kubiak and two under Bill O’Brien. Those are the most successful two-year stints in the history of the organization. DeMeco Ryans has a chance to exceed those stints, if he can get the Texans past the divisional round of the playoffs this year.
The times they’ve gone winless down the stretch have been “interim” seasons
Even with as many poor seasons as the Texans have had, there have only been three where they’ve gone winless following the first 11 games, and these seasons all have something in common — they involved people in “interim” positions. In 2013, the Texans started 2-9, before finishing 2-14, with Wade Phillips as the interim head coach for Gary Kubiak, fired after 13 games. In 2017, the Texans started 4-7, before finishing 4-12, a season in which they lost QB Deshaun Watson to an ACL tear midway through the season. I suppose we could call Tom Savage the “interim starting QB.” Finally, in 2020, the Texans turned a 4-7 start into a 4-12 whimper, after Bill O’Brien was fired four games into the season. Romeo Crennel was the interim head coach.
It took FOREVER for this franchise to be above .500 through 11 games in a season
Man, Texans fans sure were patient through the first decade with this franchise. It took nine seasons of sub .500 football through 11 games to finally come out the other side in 2011, starting 8-3 that season. Even in 2011, we weren’t allowed to enjoy it, as Matt Schaub was lost for the season in the 10th game of the year, when fat tub of lard Albert Haynesworth fell on Schaub’s foot and broke it. Gary Kubiak was under constant scrutiny from fans after a couple seasons into his tenure here (started in 2006), and you can see why — that’s a LOT of mediocre football to endure in a five year span, from 2006 through 2010.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
