Three weeks in, the National Football League is riddled with parity, sporting two teams with no losses and two teams with no wins. Everyone else in the league is in the middle, either 2-1 or 1-2 (or in the case of the Indianapolis Colts, 1-1-1). Unfortunately, at 0-2-1, the Houston Texans sit as one of the two teams at the wrong end of the spectrum (the other, the Texans’ Week 7 opponent, the Las Vegas Raiders).
Now, this weekend, here come the Los Angeles Chargers to NRG Stadium this Sunday for a noon kickoff. In a scheduling quirk, this will actually be the second time they will have played the Chargers in their last four home games, going back to the end of the 2021 season. The Chargers represent one of the Texans’ four 2021 victories actually, as a David Culley coached outfit was able to squelch the Chargers’ playoff chances, 41-29 at NRG Stadium.
Here are four things to watch for in Sunday’s matchup, along with a prediction at the bottom of the post:
4. Chargers injury sheet
The Texans have improved in some areas over last season, and in others, they’ve regressed. However, in one area over which they have very little control, the physical condition of their opponents, they’ve had tremendous luck. The Colts, in week 1, were missing defensive captain Shaquille Leonard. The Broncos lost one of their top receivers (Jerry Jeudy) and their top cornerback (Patrick Surtain) during the Week 2 contest. The Bears lost their lead running back early in Sunday’s game versus the Texans. Now, the Chargers come in having lost their left tackle (Rashawn Slater) for the season (biceps injury), and top edge rusher (Joey Bosa) for most of this season (groin injury). Additionally, their QB, Justin Herbert, is playing with cracked rib cartilage, which sounds awful. The Texans are, no doubt, getting a seriously damaged version of the Chargers on Sunday.
3. Texans pass rush
To that point, Herbert’s injury plays perfectly into one of the Texans’ noticeable strengths this season, their pass rush off the edge defensively. Currently, the Texans are tied for fifth in the league with 10 sacks through three games. Pressuring Herbert would have been a big key to this game whether Herbert was healthy or not, but the fact that even plays that don’t end in sacks might be able to hurt Herbert and his busted up torso is nothing but positive for the Texans. I might even send a couple extra blitzes at Herbert early in the game just to knock him down and try to knock him out of the game.
2. Weakness on weakness
Right now, the Chargers are averaging a paltry 59 yards per game on the ground offensively. Meanwhile, the Texans are giving up an absurd 202 yards per game on the ground defensively, which is, by far, the worst in the NFL. In short, something’s got to give! This I know — Austin Ekeler, the Chargers’ lead back, is a very good running back. If I am picking a unit to “get well” this weekend, I’ll go with the Chargers’ running game over the Texans’ run defense.
1. Davis Mills
There’s no beating around the bush here. Davis Mills has regressed from the quarterback that was making so much progress at the end of last season. Mills’ biggest general problem is that he has become one of the least accurate passers in the NFL (57.9 percent). On top of that, situationally, Mills has been a disaster. In the fourth quarter of games this season, he has generated zero points and a 46.1 passer rating. In the last two games, with Mills pulling the trigger, the Texans are 5 for 25 on third down conversions. On 3rd and 1, alone, in the loss to Chicago, the Texans were 0 for 4. The only saving grace this weekend is that Mills is much better at home (14/1 TD to INT ratio) than he is on the road (5/11 TD to INT ratio)
SPREAD: Texans +6
PREDICTION: Chargers 31, Texans 27
RECORD: 1-1-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2022.
