At this stage of the 2023 NFL season, you can look at the Houston Texans’ current situation through one of two lenses, and admittedly the lens you choose may have everything to do with how much alcohol is coursing through your veins.
On the one hand, this has been an incredible resurgence for football in Houston. Led by DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud, the fan base is reinvigorated, and I think next season there’s a great chance we see the “old NRG Stadium” back in play at home games, with raucous crowds, early tailgating, and far fewer opposing fans.
On the other hand, when you show that you’re actually capable of doing something, such as, say, competing for an AFC playoff spot, expectations shift and morph midseason. The fact of the matter, as pertains to the Texans down the stretch is they’ve lost two of their last three games in embarrassing fashion, including a 36-22 loss to the Browns on Sunday.
The good news is that there is a LOT of losing going on in the AFC playoff race right now, and the Texans are still sitting in a decent spot with two games to go, especially for a team that’s lost two out of their last three, and had to navigate life for two games without their star QB. So let’s take a look at the AFC playoff race with two weeks to go, and the Titans coming to town on Sunday:
1. BALTIMORE RAVENS, 12-3 (AFC North division leaders)
Remaining schedule: at SF, vs MIA, vs PIT
2. MIAMI DOLPHINS, 11-4 (AFC East division leaders)
Remaining schedule: at BAL, vs BUF
3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, 9-6 (AFC West division leaders)
Remaining Schedule: vs LVG, vs CIN, at LAC
4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, 8-7 (AFC South division leaders)
Remaining Schedule: vs CAR, at TEN
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5. CLEVELAND BROWNS, 10-5 (Wild card #1)
Remaining Schedule: vs NYJ, at CIN
6. BUFFALO BILLS, 9-6 (Wild card #2)
Remaining Schedule: vs NE, at MIA
7. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 8-7 (Wild card #3)
Remaining Schedule: vs LVG, vs HOU
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8. HOUSTON TEXANS, 8-7
Remaining Schedule: vs TEN, at IND
9. PITTSBURGH STEELERS, 8-7
Remaining Schedule: at SEA, at BAL
10. CINCINNATI BENGALS, 8-7
Remaining Schedule: at KC, vs CLV
11. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, 7-8
Remaining Schedule: at IND, vs DEN
12. DENVER BRONCOS, 7-8
Remaining Schedule: vs LAC, at LVG
Here are the most relevant observations, Texans related and otherwise, from this morass of teams hoping to play into at least mid January:
The Texans control their own destiny
Despite the three game sandwich of misery bread (loss to Jets in Week 14, Loss to the Browns in Week 16) and delicious Titan trouncing meat (win over Tennessee in Week 15) that the last three weeks has been, with a 1-2 record, the Texans still sit where they were at the beginning of this stretch — in the 8th seed with control of getting into the playoffs without help from anyone else. Quite simply, beat the Titans at home this weekend, and go to Indy and beat them in Week 18, and the Houston Texans are back in the playoffs. Getting C.J. Stroud back is non negotiable, though, for this to happen. He must return from the concussion he suffered against the Jets. The good news is that Stroud was back in the building last week leading up to the Browns game.
The AFC South title is still in the mix for the Texans (and Jags and Colts)
While an 8-7 record would normally have a team more focused on the wild card spots in the playoff pecking order, the recent slide of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who’ve lost four straight since beating the Texans in Week 12, has opened the door to a possible division title. The Jags, Texans, and Colts are all 8-7 right now. The Jags have the edge in the tie breakers, so the Texans and Colts need with the 2-13 Panthers this weekend or the Titans in Week 18 to do some of their dirty work and hang a loss on the Jaguars. Anything is possible at this point.
As I surmised a few weeks ago, the Bills win over the Chiefs was a problem
As for those wild card spots, the Browns’ win over the Texans basically clinches them a playoff spot. It’s not 100 percent clinched, according to the playoff scenario websites out there, but it may as well be. In the meantime, as I’ve been stressing the last few weeks, that Kadarius Toney offsides call against the Chiefs in their loss to the Bills is going to cost one of these 8-7 teams a playoff spot. Since that game, the Bills have thumped the Cowboys and squeaked out a win over the Chargers. This weekend, the Bills have the plucky Patriots and then the Dolphins in Week 18. It’s not an easy schedule, but the Bills win out and they’re likely the 6-seed or higher.
The two fringe 7-8 teams are an interesting study in perspective
At 7-8, with two games to go, a team’s playoff chances are only really alive with some crazy math yielding a few percentage points of hope. In other words, the Raiders’ and Broncos’ seasons are essentially over from a playoff perspective. It’s interesting, though, to see how different the perspectives can be of two teams with the same record. The Broncos fell to 7-8 by losing at home to the aforementioned (and not very good) Patriots, and Broncos head coach Sean Payton looks like he wants to crawl into a hole. The Raiders, on the other hand, upset the Chiefs on Christmas Day behind a rookie QB and interim head coach, and they’re literally smoking cigars in the locker room afterward. Fascinating.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
