The Houston Texans have a starting quarterback in the MVP conversation, and while it might feel like it’s been forever since that’s been the case, it actually hasn’t been all that long. The barren wasteland that was 2021 and 2022, along with how things ended for Deshaun Watson here, amidst a sea of lawsuits, tend to mask the fact that Watson was an MVP candidate at one time.
It’s a new era now, though, and at least early on, it feels like, between better coaching, better culture, and C.J. Stroud being a better human being than Watson, this era of MVP level football is far more built to last than the fearsome threesome of Bill O’Brien, Tim Kelly, and Watson. In 2024, at the very least, Stroud is getting major MVP buzz.
Vegas Insider summarizes all of the MVP odds of the major betting outlets and the consensus seems to be that Stroud is the third highest candidate on the board behind perennial MVP contender (and actual two time MVP) Patrick Mahomes and Buffalo’s Josh Allen. Stroud is getting love as a possible MVP from major media outlets, as well. Here is the NFL Network’s Steve Wyche with his prediction for Stroud:
This is a whole lot of fun, and a lot of pressure on Stroud. Fortunately, as a young man who is grounded and very faith-based, he seems built to handle it. So the question than is “What would an MVP season from C.J. Stroud look like?” How would it play out? Here is my take:
Let’s start off with the fact that it’s all set up nicely in the building for C.J.
In order to build further off of Stroud’s 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign, a season in which he set records for rookie quarterback performance, the Texans wanted to give him more weapons to battle what will be a tougher schedule (more on that in a moment). GM Nick Caserio went out and got WR Stefon Diggs and RB Joe Mixon, two Pro Bowl caliber skill players that can take the offense to another level. Additionally, Stroud welcomes back both his offensive coordinator and play caller, Bobby Slowik, and his position coach, Jerrod Johnson, for another season together. These are extremely positive developments to set the table for a big year.
Matching last season’s team performance is the cover charge to even enter the chat
So the season will eventually play out, and as the MVP conversation evolves, certain guys will fall off and maybe an unexpected name or two enter the chat, like Stroud did last season. In order to remain inside the velvet rope of the metaphorical VIP Club that is the MVP conversation, C.J. Stroud will, at a bare minimum, need to match what the Texans did last season, which is win the AFC South. In fact, the team will likely need a better record than 10-7 (think, minimum, 12-5) for Stroud to be a serious contender.
The individual numbers need to be similar to last season, but not exactly the same
Last season Stroud finished the regular season with over 4,100 yards passing, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He led the league in passing yards per game and touchdown-to-interception ratio, the only rookie to ever do that and only the third player, period, to do it in the modern NFL era. The other two were guys named Brady and Montana. If healthy, and health is a big key for this entire argument obviously, Stroud will waltz past the 4,100 yard mark. As for touchdowns and interceptions, I think he will likely throw more of each this coming season, which is fine, as long as it’s something like 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The better the Texans’ record, the less eye popping the numbers will need to be. In other words, if they win the division with a mere 10-7 record again, he better be approaching 5,000 yards passing and 35 touchdowns.
The schedule is C.J.’s best friend in this conversation
Here is the biggest thing in Stroud’s favor — the schedule makers have set up a very MVP campaign-friendly schedule for the Texans. It’s extremely difficult, which means that a 12-5 record for the Texans is likely more impressive than a 12-5 record from other candidates. Moreover, the way the schedule lays out, in terms of the order of the games and the existence of prime time games, is perfect. The first eight games make up the easiest patch of schedule. The Texans should start the season 6-2, in my opinion. From there, there are two swaths of schedule that are ideal “making ceremonies” for a league MVP. In weeks 9 through 11, the Texans are on in prime time against the Jets in New Jersey, home for the Lions, and Monday Night Football in Dallas. In other words, Stroud is going to be a prime time staple for three weeks coming off a likely hot start. Then, following the Week 14 bye week, the Texans host Miami, travel to Kansas City, and host the Ravens on Christmas Day, all within an 11 day span. In other words, Stroud will have head to head matchups with the last two MVP’s within for days of each other, both on national TV.
I’m getting excited just typing this. The season can’t get here soon enough. It’s fun to have a real MVP candidate at quarterback again.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
