After 13 straight weeks playing an NFL game, the Houston Texans’ bye week finally arrived last weekend, and as much as everyone, fans and media included, needed a bit of a break, my energy level is completely rejuvenated for the Texans’ stretch run of four more games.
This means the Texans’ pregame and postgame radio shows (both of which I host) should be just dandy. However, it’s probably more crucial that the players are reenergized and ready to go against a Miami Dolphins team that is 6-7 on the season, but has won four of their last five games. In short, this is a team that is better than its overall record.
The Dolphins are still holding out hope of sneaking into the postseason, while the Texans could be AFC South champions again by Sunday evening, if they beat the Dolphins on Sunday in the early window, and the Colts lose to the Broncos in the late afternoon time slot. It would be the Texans eighth AFC South title since 2011, not too shabby!
As for Sunday’s game at NRG Stadium, here are a few things to watch for:
4. Nico vs Ramsey
If there is one thing we’ve learned this season, the barometer for this Texans offense, and the place they turn when all else fails, is wide receiver Nico Collins. The five games without Collins were dreadful (2-3, with all sorts of offensive issues). The eight games with him, the Texans are a robust 6-2, and Colins leads the NFL in receiving yards per game. DeMeco Ryans compared him to Andre Johnson this week in his press conference. The matchup of Collins versus (possible) future Hall of Fame cornerback Jalen Ramsey should be a great one to watch, reminiscent of the days when Ramsey was a Jaguar going against DeAndre Hopkins.
3. Life without Azeez
Sunday’s game will be the first Texans game under which Azeez Al-Shaair will be serving his three game suspension for a late hit (and lots of spectacle in the aftermath) on Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. With Al-Shaair out (not to mention safety Jalen Pitre being done for the season), the middle of the field becomes an easier place for the Dolphins to attack, with crossing routes from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, as well as stealer play from TE Jonnu Smith, who’s scored a touchdown in each of his last four games.
2. Those chunk plays
The Texans overall have assembled a very talented, and on most plays, very productive defense. They defend the run fairly well (4.1 yards per carry), and they allow the 6th lowest passer rating in the NFL. There’s one big problem, though, and it’s allowed lesser teams than the Dolphins to hang around in games with the Texans — they give up the 6th most plays of 30 or more yards in the league.
Big chunk plays are a problem, and you know what the Dolphins can do quite well? Generate BIG CHUNK PLAYS, with elite speedsters like RB Devon Achane and Hill. If the Texans are going to clinch the division early and allow themselves to get healthy going into the postseason, they have to cut down on the big plays allowed on defense, and certainly if they are going to win on Sunday, they have to turn this into a game where they make the Dolphins work for every yard.
1. Bye week discoveries on offense
The Texans, believe it or not, are 11th in scoring in the NFL, which is fairly remarkable, when you consider that they have had MAJOR difficulty scoring in the second half of football games this season. Before scoring two touchdowns in the second half against the Jaguars, the Texans had not scored multiple second touchdowns on offense since Week 6 against New England. The offensive line has had major protection issues, allowing 42 sacks, and most of the damage in the run game has come from Joe Mixon’s individual brilliance. I say all of this to say that hopefully OC Bobby Slowik figured some things out over the break, and we start to see the C.J. Stroud we saw in the final weeks and first playoff game of last season.
SPREAD: Texans -2
PREDICTION: Texans 27, Dolphins 26
SEASON RECORD: 8-5 SU, 2-11 ATS
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast, on Instagram at instagram.com/sean.pendergast, and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
